Mulgrave – Queensland 2015

ALP 1.15%

Incumbent MP
Curtis Pitt, since 2009.

Geography
Far North Queensland. Mulgrave covers the Queensland coast between Innisfail and the southern suburbs of Cairns, including Miriwinni, Babinda, Bellenden Ker, Deerul, Gordonvale, Edmonton and parts of White Rock. Mulgrave covers the Aboriginal Shire of Yarrabah and parts of Cairns and Cassowary Coast local government areas.

History
The seat of Mulgrave has existed continuously since 1950. For most of that period it was dominated by the Country/National Party. Since 1989 it has been dominated by the ALP, although the seat has changed hands on a number of occasions.

The seat had been held by Country or National Party MPs continuously for the length of the party’s term in government from 1957 to 1989.

In 1989 the seat was won by the ALP’s Warren Pitt. He was re-elected in 1992 and briefly became a minister in the Labor government in early 1995, before losing his seat to the National Party’s Naomi Wilson at the 1995 election.

Wilson briefly served as a minister in 1998 before losing Mulgrave to One Nation’s Charles Rappolt at the 1998 election. Rappolt’s time in the Parliament was brief. He faced attacks over domestic violence allegations, and he resigned in late 1998.

At the 1998 by-election Warren Pitt won back Mulgrave, giving Peter Beattie a majority in the Legislative Assembly.

Pitt was re-elected in 2001. In early 2004 he was reappointed to the ministry. He served in the ministry until his retirement in 2009.

At the 2009 election Mulgrave was won by Pitt’s son Curtis Pitt. The younger Pitt served as a minister from 2011 to 2012, and was re-elected for a second term in 2012. He currently serves as Shadow Treasurer, and also holds a number of other portfolios.

Candidates

  • Henry Boer (Greens)
  • Curtis Pitt (Labor)
  • Robyn Quick (Liberal National)
  • Damian Byrnes (Independent)
  • Christian Wolff (Palmer United)

Assessment
Mulgrave is traditionally a safe Labor seat. Despite the slim margin, Labor should comfortably hold the seat in 2015.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Curtis Pitt Labor 8,739 34.50 -13.51
Robyn Quick Liberal National 8,105 32.00 -1.44
Damian Byrnes Katter’s Australian 7,585 29.95 +29.95
Jim Cavill Greens 899 3.55 -2.06

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Curtis Pitt Labor 10,514 51.15 -6.93
Robyn Quick Liberal National 10,043 48.85 +6.93
Polling places in Mulgrave at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mulgrave at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mulgrave have been split into three parts: central, north and south.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 30.2% in the centre to 39% in the north.

The LNP primary vote ranged from 29.2% in the north to 33.7% in the south.

Katter’s Australian Party also polled highly, with a vote ranging from 27.7% in the north to 34.2% in the centre.

Labor topped the primary vote in the north, Katter’s Australian Party topped the primary vote in the centre, and LNP topped the vote in the south.

Labor won 55.7% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north, and the LNP won 52.3% in the centre and 51.3% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group ALP prim % LNP prim % KAP prim % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 39.05 29.24 27.73 55.68 9,611 37.95
Central 30.20 32.86 34.17 47.67 4,689 18.51
South 32.51 33.73 31.19 48.69 4,177 16.49
Other votes 32.29 34.23 29.41 48.48 6,851 27.05
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mulgrave at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mulgrave at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Mulgrave at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Mulgrave at the 2012 Queensland state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. Pitt has been one of, if not the best Labor performer in opposition. He will increase his margin and this seat will enter safe Labor territory again.

  2. Labor lucky here, rather like Cessnock in NSW 2011, much of anti-Labor swing absorbed by KAP. A big increase in Labor’s primary vote is likely but 2PP swing back will be relatively modest as much of Labor’s recovery will be at expense of KAP rather than LNP.

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