Arnhem – NT 2016

CLP 4.3%

Incumbent MP
Larisa Lee (Independent), since 2012.

Geography
Top End. Arnhem covers a majority of Arnhem Land, stretching from Groot Eylandt and the eastern coast of the top end to Kakadu National Park.

Redistribution
Arnhem shifted west, losing parts of East Arnhem to Nhulunbuy and gaining Kakadu National Park from Arafura. These changes cut the Country Liberal Party’s margin from 5.3% to 4.3%.

History
The electorate of Arnhem was created in 1974 for the first Northern Territory assembly election. Labor held the seat continuously from 1977 until 2012.

Rupert Kentish won Arnhem in 1974 for the Country Liberal Party, holding the seat for one term.

Labor’s Bob Collins won Arnhem in 1977. He was elected Labor leader in 1981, and moved to the new seat of Arafura in 1983. Collins served as Labor leader until 1986. He resigned from Arafura in 1987 to run for the Senate. He served as a Senator for the Northern Territory until 1998.

Wes Lanhupuy succeeded Collins in Arnhem in 1983. He held the seat for twelve years until his death in 1995.

Labor’s Jack Ah Kit succeeded Lanhupuy in 1995. He held the seat until 2005, serving as a minister in the first Labor government after the 2001 election.

Labor’s Malarndirri McCarthy won Arnhem in 2005. She was re-elected in 2008 and became a minister after the 2008 election.

In 2012, McCarthy lost her seat to the CLP’s Larisa Lee. She returned to politics in 2016, elected to represent the Northern Territory in the Senate.

Lee resigned from the Country Liberal Party in 2014. She has served on the crossbench ever since. She briefly served as a member of the Palmer United Party, but now sits as an independent.

Candidates

• Selena Uibo (Labor)
• Lance Lawrence (Independent)
• James Gaykamangu (1 Territory)
• Ian Gumbula (Country Liberal)
• Larisa Lee (Independent)

Assessment
The Country Liberal Party won Arnhem with a massive 30% swing in 2012 at a time when remote indigenous electorates were swinging away from Labor across the territory. You would expect a swing away from the CLP this time, which will be worsened by the loss of incumbency benefits.

Larisa Lee would be expected to benefit as an incumbent, but may struggle without the support of a party, while Labor will be hoping that a swing back to them will allow them to regain this former heartland seat.

2012 result

Booth breakdown
There are three booths contained in the current boundaries of Arnhem. The Jabiru booth was previously contained in Arafura. These booths are all quite small – almost half of the vote was cast at mobile polling stations in remote communities.

The Country Liberal Party won a 58.6% majority in the remote mobile booths and a smaller 53.5% majority in Alyangula. Labor won 57.7% in Jabiru and a massive 70.3% majority in Ngukurr.