Wollondilly – NSW 2015

LIB 21.6%

Incumbent MP
Jai Rowell, since 2011.

Geography
Wollondilly covers most of Wollondilly Shire, as well as northern parts of the Southern Highlands. Wollondilly particularly covers Appin, Bargo, Bowral, Douglas Park, Hill Top, Mittagong, Nattai, Picton, Wilton and Yerrinbool.

Map of Wollondilly's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Wollondilly’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Wollondilly shifted south, losing southern parts of Campbelltown and gaining parts of the Southern Highlands. The previous electoral boundaries included the Campbelltown suburbs of Bradbury, Glen Alpine, Rosemeadow, St Helens Park and Menangle Park. These areas were transferred to Campbelltown. In exchange, Wollondilly gained Bowral, Mittagong, Hill Top and surrounding areas from Goulburn. These changes substantially strengthened the Liberal margin, from 14.7% to 21.6%.

History
The current electoral district was only created for the most recent election in 2007. A previous electoral district with the name of Wollondilly existed from 1904 to 1981.

The seat existed from 1904 to 1981 covering areas between Campbelltown and Bowral, varying at each redistribution. From 1920 to 1925 the district expanded to be a three-member district elected proportionally. This district, while named Wollondilly, it stretched to the coast, covering Wollongong and surrounding areas.

From 1904 to 1978, the single-member district of Wollondilly was always won by the main conservative party, eventually becoming the Liberal Party.

The seat was won in 1957 by the Liberal Party’s Tom Lewis. He became a minister when the Coalition won power in 1965 led by Robert Askin. Lewis became Premier in early 1975 following Askin’s retirement. He only lasted a year, and was replaced in January 1976 by Eric Willis. The Liberals lost power at the 1976 election, and Lewis retired in 1978.

Wollondilly was gained by the ALP’s Bill Knott in 1978. In 1981, Wollondilly was abolished, with much of the seat’s territory forming part of the new seat of Camden. Knott moved to the new seat of Kiama, and held it until his retirement in 1986.

The seat of Wollondilly was restored as part of the redistribution before the 2007 election as a marginal Labor seat with a 4.6% margin, out of pieces of Camden, a marginal Labor seat, and Southern Highlands, a safer Liberal seat.

The seat was won in 2007 by ALP candidate Phil Costa. Costa was the Mayor of Wollondilly Shire, who had been elected to council as an independent with no links to either major party. He originally threatened to stand as an independent if either party preselected a candidate from the Campbelltown part of the seat, but was persuaded to stand for the ALP. Following his preselection announcement Wollondilly Council passed a motion of no confidence, but he refused to resign, and won the seat with a swing of only 1.3% against the ALP.

In 2011, Costa lost to Liberal candidate Jai Rowell, a councillor in the City of Campbelltown. Rowell was appointed as Minister for Mental Health and Assistant Minister for Health in 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Wollondilly was a very marginal seat before the last election, and there is likely to be a swing back to Labor. The loss of southern Campbelltown suburbs and replacement of them with Liberal-friendly areas in the Southern Highlands has substantially strengthened this seat, and probably pushed it out of reach of the ALP.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jai Rowell Liberal 22,632 49.9 +10.6 55.8
Phil Costa Labor 11,558 25.5 -18.8 18.9
Judy Hannan Independent 4,971 11.0 +11.0 7.2
Jess Di Blasio Greens 2,432 5.4 -1.6 7.2
Clinton Mead Outdoor Recreation 2,104 4.6 +4.6 2.7
Chris Dalton Christian Democrats 1,669 3.7 +3.7 3.5
Others 4.6

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jai Rowell Liberal 24,861 64.7 +18.0 71.6
Phil Costa Labor 13,559 35.3 -18.0 28.4
Polling places in Wollondilly at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Wollondilly at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Wollondilly have been split into three parts. Polling places in Wollondilly Shire were split into “Central” and “North”, while those in Wingecarribee Shire were grouped as “South”. All those booths in the south were previously contained in the seat of Goulburn, while all of those in the centre and north were contained in Wollondilly.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 64% in the centre to 78% in the south.

Independent candidates came third in all three areas. In the centre and north, independent candidate Judy Hannan polled 12.4% and 13.3% respectively. In the south, independent candidate Robert Parker (running in Goulburn) polled 11.6%.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 3.3% in the north to 10.9% in the south.

Voter group LIB 2PP % IND % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Central 64.1 12.4 5.1 13,614 31.7
South 78.3 11.6 10.9 13,226 30.8
North 72.2 13.3 3.3 6,827 15.9
Other votes 72.4 10.2 8.0 9,311 21.7
Two-party-preferred votes in Wollondilly at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Wollondilly at the 2011 NSW state election.

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