Terrigal – NSW 2015

LIB 23.6%

Incumbent MP
Chris Hartcher, since 2007. Previously Member for Gosford 1988-2007.

Geography
Central Coast. Terrigal covers those parts of the City of Gosford running along the coast, as well as a tiny part of Wyong Shire. The seat covers Forresters Beach, Holgate, Wamberal, Erina, Terrigal, Avoca, Copacabana, Kincumber, Davistown, Empire Bay, Macmasters Beach and Killcare.

Map of Terrigal's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Terrigal’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Terrigal expanded slightly, taking in Springfield from Gosford. This change cut the Liberal margin from 24.1% to 23.6%.

History
The seat of Terrigal was created at the 2007 election. It was largely the successor to the seat of Gosford. The 2007 redistribution had shifted borders such that the town of Gosford moved into the nieghbouring seat of Peats, resulting in Peats being renamed Gosford and the former Gosford being renamed Terrigal. The old seat of Gosford had shifted between parties, but had been held by the Liberals since 1988.

A district with the name ‘Gosford’ has existed since the 1950 election. Prior to that period the southern parts of the Central Coast were combined with a seat covering the Hawkesbury.

The seat was held by the Liberal Party from its creation in 1950 to 1971, when it was won by the ALP.

In 1973, the seat of Gosford was broken into the seats of Gosford and Peats. The seat of Peats is the most immediate predecessor of the current seat of Gosford, while the seat of Gosford in 1973 mostly resembles the current seat of Terrigal.

The ALP had first won Gosford in 1971, but when the seats were divided in 1973, the sitting member Keith O’Connell moved to the safer seat of Peats. Gosford was won by the Liberal Party’s Malcolm Brooks.

Brooks lost in 1976 to the ALP’s Brian McGowan by only 74 votes. McGowan held the seat until his defeat in 1988.

Chris Hartcher won Gosford for the Liberal Party in 1988. He served as a minister in the Coalition state government from 1992 to 1995. He retained Gosford throughout the 1990s, and in 2003 he held on by only 272 votes. He had been Liberal deputy leader from 2002 until 2003, but was replaced by Barry O’Farrell following the 2003 election.

Prior to the 2007 election, boundaries changed so that Gosford was effectively renamed Terrigal, and neighbouring Peats renamed Gosford. Hartcher won re-election to the renamed seat of Terrigal. Hartcher won a further term in 2011.

Hartcher was appointed Minister for Resources and Energy in the new Liberal/National government in 2011. He resigned from cabinet in December 2013 after his office was raided by the Independent Commission Against Corruption, and in February 2014 he moved to the crossbench as the ICAC inquiry progressed.

Candidates
Sitting independent (and ex-Liberal) MP Chris Hartcher is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Terrigal, under its former name of Gosford, has been in Liberal hands since 1988, and is held by a solid 23.6% margin. These trends suggest the Liberal Party should be able to reclaim the seat, but the circumstances of Chris Hartcher’s political fall might make the Liberal Party nervous.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Chris Hartcher Liberal 26,737 61.0 +11.1 60.5
Trevor Drake Labor 7,790 17.8 -16.2 18.1
Dougal Anderson Greens 5,927 13.5 +4.9 13.4
Michelle Meares Independent 1,414 3.2 +3.2 3.0
Carmen Darley-Bentley Christian Democrats 1,289 2.9 -0.1 3.0
Ian Sutton Independent 698 1.6 +1.6 1.5
Others 0.4

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Chris Hartcher Liberal 28,433 74.1 +15.7 73.6
Trevor Drake Labor 9,913 25.9 -15.7 26.4
Polling places in Terrigal at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Terrigal at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Terrigal have been split into three parts: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 70.5% in the centre to 77.1% in the north.

The Greens vote ranged from 13.1% in the centre to 14.4% in the north.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Central 70.5 13.1 15,189 32.7
North 77.1 14.4 12,068 26.0
South 72.0 14.1 6,778 14.6
Other votes 74.9 12.5 12,350 26.6
Two-party-preferred votes in Terrigal at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Terrigal at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Terrigal at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Terrigal at the 2011 NSW state election.

6 COMMENTS

  2. this is different from the other central coast seats as is much more liberal……….. but who knows…… deb O’neill went very close a couple of elections ago

  3. Why no Labor vote numbers? Are you that confident that this is a Liberal/ Greens seat that you consider those numbers unnecessary? I wouldn’t be if I were you. I’ve been on the ground wearing out my shoe leather in this seat over the past few months and I can tell you that the electorate are factoring in the corruption scandal to their deliberations and so this won’t be an ordinary election in this seat.

    Plus the fact that the Liberal candidate was chosen at 5minutes to midnight, has zero to no recognition by the electorate, and doesn’t even reside in the seat! He lives in Umina in the seat of Gosford. Not to mention that Labor has chosen a very strong candidate to run this time. He is someone who has lived and worked on the Coast for 32 years. He is no apparatchik and has run a very, very strong grassroots campaign.

    I predict that should the Liberals win this seat it will be because there are those who will vote Liberal come hell or high water and they were the majority.

  4. No that’s not the case. You can identify the Labor two-party-preferred vote by subtracting the Liberal 2PP from 100. Showing both the Labor and Liberal 2PP is unnecessary.

  5. Based on the state-wide polls indicating a 10% swing against the Government it would be reasonable to assume a 13% – 18% swing to Labor based on the incumbent stepping down re ICAC, a a new Liberal Candidate who hasn’t got much of a profile in the electorate and limited spending promises for the area. But without a strong independent candidate to further eat into the Liberal primary vote it is hard to see Labor going any further than an 18% swing. Liberal retain.

  6. It will be a tragedy for terrigal if adam crouch is elected he has no affinity with the area and is a last minute parachute who Comes accross as a snake oil salesman. Labour candidate jeff Sundstrom has worked tirelessly to gain recognition and is an excellent candidate lets hope people vote on merit and not using the I always vote liberal mentality otherwise nothing will be done here for four years.

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