Macquarie Fields – NSW 2015

LIB 1.8%

Incumbent MP
Andrew McDonald (ALP), since 2007.

Geography
Southwestern Sydney. Macquarie Fields covers northern suburbs of the City of Campbelltown and a small part of the City of Liverpool. Suburbs include Denham Court, Edmondson Park, Glenfield, Ingleburn, Kearns, Macquarie Fields, Minto, Raby and St Andrews.

Map of Macquarie Fields' 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Macquarie Fields’ 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Macquarie Fields shifted south, further into Campbelltown. Macquarie Fields gained Kearns and Raby from Camden and Ingleburn, Minto and St Andrews from Campbelltown. Macquarie Fields lost Casula, Lurnea and Prestons to Holsworthy, Horningsea Park and Hoxton Park to Liverpool, and Austral to Camden. These changes flipped Macquarie Fields’ margin from 1.5% for the ALP to 1.8% for the Liberal Party. Following the redistribution, a majority of the new seat’s population was previously in a different seat.

History
The seat of Macquarie Fields was first established at the 1988 election. It was a successor to the seat of Ingleburn, which was the first seat created between the seats of Liverpool and Campbelltown when it was created in 1981. The 1988 election shifted the seat north, and renamed the seat to reflect the change. In 1991, the seat moved deeper into Liverpool, and was renamed Moorebank. The changes were partly reversed in 1999, when the seat was again named Macquarie Fields. It has had that name ever since. This seat, whatever its name, has always been held by the ALP. The seat was held continuously by the Knowles family from 1981 to 2005.

Ingleburn was first won in 1981 by Liverpool deputy mayor Stan Knowles. He was re-elected in 1984 and 1988, the last time in the renamed seat of Macquarie Fields. Knowles resigned in 1990, and the ensuing by-election was won by his son Craig, a former Mayor of Liverpool.

Knowles was re-elected in the renamed Moorebank in 1991 and 1995, before his seat was again named Macquarie Fields in 1999. He joined the ministry upon Labor winning government in 1995, and after the 2003 election held a large ministerial brief. His position was damaged by his tenure as Minister for Health, and while he had once been considered a possible successor to Bob Carr as Premier, by the time of Carr’s retirement in 2005 Knowles was no longer considered a contender. Knowles retired at the same time as Carr and his deputy, Andrew Refshauge.

The 2005 by-election was won by Campbelltown city councillor Steven Chaytor. He was opposed at the Macquarie Fields by-election by former nurse and whistleblower Nola Fraser, running for the Liberals. The ALP suffered a 12% swing in the by-election.

At 29, Chaytor was considered an up-and-comer in the party. This was cut short barely a year later, when he faced charges of assault against his partner from an incident in December 2006. With the impending election, Chaytor was suspended from the ALP. He was found guilty in January 2007, after which he was expelled from the ALP and a new candidate was found. The ALP now preselected Dr Andrew McDonald, a doctor with previous involvement with Campbelltown Hospital around the time of the issues which had affected Knowles as Minister for Health and had led to Nola Fraser’s political involvement.

Chaytor’s conviction was later overturned on appeal, and he served out his term on Campbelltown City Council, retiring in September 2008.

At the 2007 election, McDonald held off against Fraser, with a similar 12% swing to that in the 2005 by-election. In 2011, McDonald was re-elected, holding on against a below-average anti-Labor swing 0f 9.7%.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Andrew McDonald is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Macquarie Fields is a very marginal seat, and has become a notional Liberal seat following the redistribution. The Liberal Party is running a high-profile candidate in Pat Farmer, a former three-term federal MP for Macarthur. But considering how Farmer’s career ended in him losing preselection and moving out of the Macarthur region, he may not be as strong a candidate as his resume would suggest.

Considering the history of this area, there should be a solid swing back to Labor that will ensure they retain the seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew McDonald Labor 18,157 40.1 -12.9 39.2
Sam Eskaros Liberal 16,727 37.0 +3.9 42.2
Nola Fraser Independent 4,738 10.5 +10.5 4.4
Joshua Green Christian Democrats 2,647 5.8 +1.5 4.2
Bill Cashman Greens 1,744 3.9 -1.2 5.8
Mick Allen Independent 717 1.6 -0.1 0.7
Simon McCaffrey Democratic Labour 531 1.2 +1.2 0.4
Others 3.0

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew McDonald Labor 19,626 51.5 -9.7 48.2
Sam Eskaros Liberal 18,510 48.5 +9.7 51.8
Polling places in Macquarie Fields at the 2011 NSW state election. Ingleburn in green, Minto in blue, North in red, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Macquarie Fields at the 2011 NSW state election. Ingleburn in green, Minto in blue, North in red, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Macquarie Fields have been split into four parts: north (including Glenfield and Macquarie Fields), west (including Raby and St Andrews), Ingleburn and Minto. It’s worth noting that only the ‘north’ area was contained in the old boundaries of Macquarie Fields. One polling place in the Ingleburn area was a shared booth where Macquarie Fields voters could vote in 2011.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 50.1% in Minto to 57.3% in the west. In the north, the ALP won 55.8%.

The Greens came second on the redistributed boundaries, with a vote ranging from 3.5% in the north to 7.4% in the west.

Independent candidate Nola Fraser polled over 10% on the old seat boundaries. Her vote in the north of the new electorate was 13.4%, and wasn’t on the ballot in most other booths in the new seat.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % IND % CDP % Total votes % of votes
North 44.2 3.5 13.4 4.3 10,129 23.6
West 57.3 7.4 0.0 3.2 9,280 21.6
Ingleburn 53.5 6.1 0.4 4.3 7,030 16.3
Minto 50.1 6.2 0.0 4.3 6,296 14.6
Other votes 52.8 6.3 4.7 4.8 10,269 23.9
Two-party-preferred votes in Macquarie Fields at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Macquarie Fields at the 2011 NSW state election.

16 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: Labor will easily win this notionally Liberal seat back. On another note, Pat Farmer did not represent this area – the territory comprising Macquarie Fields in both its recent incarnations, has been part of Werriwa, not Macarthur.

  3. I wonder what Farmer’s motivation is for running for an unwinnable seat.

    Does he still live in Mosman? If so, this may be a big swing.

  4. I’m surprised to see Farmer back. I thought he’d run his last race when he petulantly complained about the electorate almost throwing him out at the 2007 federal election.

  7. @Edward – whoops, thanks for pointing out the error. Surprising place for me to make an error considering I grew up in that exact spot.

    Re Pat Farmer, apparently he was living in Maroubra recently, he seems to have offered himself as a possible candidate for Terrigal last year.

  8. I see this seat being a lot closer than what people think. Dr McDonald got up in this seat off the back of the spoiler candidate in Nola Fraser on top of his solid personal vote in the seat (about 5-6%). Given these two are not in the election this time, I see 15% of the vote up for grabs in this seat. This could be a flip of the coin.

  10. Chanthivong is a councillor and a former mayor, he’s a reasonably strong candidate. A lot smarter than Farmer. I don’t think he’ll have a problem with his profile.

  11. I doubt Pat Farmer will make any impact here, this seat would only marginally overlap his former seat of Macarthur. Living in Mosman or Maroubra definitely won’t help and his dummy spit after narrowly winning in 2007 is still in many people’s memory. Definitely a notional Labor gain.

  12. Pat Farmer was a notoriously useless federal MP and the fact that the Libs have given him a run here shows that they know they have no chance of holding this seat.

  15. Pat Farmer was indeed a preselection candidate for Terrigal. He was eliminated in the second round. Nothing more than al seat shopper.

  16. Farmer’s silly behaviour since 2007 is fair game for bagging, but he did hold a marginal seat for a decade, so he can’t be a complete dud.

Comments are closed.