Clarence – NSW 2015

1. My prediction: National hold, although expect a large swing back to Labor.

2. The Bentley anti-CSG blockade technically took place just inside the northern boundary of this seat, but that will have a far more potent impact in Lismore than here. Labor even initially left the Clarence Valley out of their policy to ban the CSG industry in the Northern Rivers and they seem to have chosen a rather low profile and inexperienced candidate. Perhaps they were expecting a serious campaign from an independent here, which would’ve made sense, but it doesn’t look as though either of the two indies in the field so far are major contenders for the seat.

   Significant swing to Labor likely, helped by overflow from the more intense campaigns in the seats to the north, but the Labor candidate being from Casino will probably keep the swing down in Grafton. Probably somewhere around 5% more than the by-election result – ie 60-40 2PP would be my guess, maybe 55-45 at best

3. Are state Labor really incompetent on the North Coast or something? They only seem to do well in high water mark elections up there, despite federally the area being around 50/50.

4. Disagree Nick the Independent Bryan Robins, is going to give the Nationals and Labor a run and could be likely to pick up the seat. Robins is strong no BS and totally against CSG only he and the Greens candidate attended the Declaration Day in Coraki on Sunday. He’s firm on his representation of community and has a depth of background, was SES for 20 years. The minute people meet, hear or read him they know he’ll listen to community and represent them. His position statements are at http://bryanrobins.com/

5. I think the strength of the anti CSG sentiment is being way under estimated here in Clarence as well as the Northern Rivers and elsewhere.

   The petroleum exploration licences held by Metgasco cover Casino PEL 16 and PEL 13.
   PEL 426 covers all of Grafton.

   There were blockades at Bentley (yes just inside the North boundary), Glenugie (South of Grafton) as well as Doubtful creek (Lismore) as well as many other actions.

   There is a large grass roots campaign to Number every square and put the Nationals last.
   For many Labor is not an option, this may see a big swing to Janet Cavanaugh (Green) and Bryan Robins (Independant) who are both performing well.

   With the findings of ICAC to date and very poor performance from ‘both’ sides of NSW politics I would be very hesitant to consider any seat safe.

6. Well I’m certainly not underestimating the impact of CSG in Lismore, and I’ve heard about private polling which backs that up, but I just don’t see it having as much of an impact in Clarence. The Greens vote actually went down in Casino in the by-election diespite the CSG focus and the extra resources the Greens put into the area, including opening a campaign office. I definitely think the issue has more potency now than then, but big enough to get up a candidate who I haven’t seen much of in the media? I won’t be totally surprised if this ends up being very close but I’d want to see some polling before I’m convinced the Nats will lose this one.

7. Queensland polls showed the LNP to return, who’d think Labor would go from 8 seats to government? And media attention was all LNP favoured. It’s going to be an interesting election that’s for sure.

8. Have you met or heard the Country Labor candidate, Trent Gilbert go head to head with Chris Gulaptis? Very impressive for a young candidate. Watch out for Gilbert, he will give Gulaptis a run for his money and is a certain future sitting member.

9. If anti CSG sentiment were determining who you voted for, where would you go? All the parties have declared war on the natural gas industry, and just as they once did on law and order, are now outbidding each other on who can be the most hard-line.

   That is the enduring power of Allan Jones … But those who see “irony” in dread-locked vegans standing side by side with right-wing broadcasters are missing the point. This anti-CSG alliance, which now includes the Nats as well as the Greens and Labor, is being dictated by the interests of the State’s wealthiest rural pastoralists.

   And there has been a big change in the way the Nats are approaching this now that Stoner has gone, replaced by Dubbo’s Troy Grant

   I don’t know enough about the NSW North Coast to predict what it will do the three seats Labor now has now declared are in its sights. A safe bet is that Jones will help Labor’s and the Green’s numbers a bit, but the outcome won’t change – certainly not in Clarence.

10. The Coalition has announced this morning they are buying back a licence that they themselves renewed in this term of government – when they have just renewed licenses across Lismore & Kyogle LGAs!! The coalition’s hypocrisy is breathtaking.

11. The other independent, Debrah Novak, has a website here
    http://votenovak.com/

12. Coco Bunter I read with interest your comment and didn’t understand at all where you were coming from until I read this “I don’t know enough about the NSW North Coast to predict what it will do the three seats…”

    Obviously you don’t know about the North Coast, when you say “…dread-locked vegans standing side by side with right-wing broadcasters…” over 80% of the community in the Northern Rivers have declared their roads, villages, towns Gasfield Free. I assure you 80% of the North Coast aren’t dread-locked vegans, but they are a diverse community that have come together against this destructive unsafe industry and they say no, in a big loud voice and are tired of not being listened to on this and a number of other issues.

    zaccarruthers Yes hypocrisy. The announcement of the buy back of two licences is a joke, they bought the licences for $1,000 did nothing and now they approached the government who bought them back for approx $200,000 and they still have one licence over the Clarence. Not a bad investment on the part of Clarence Morton Resources.

    I believe Trent Gilbert will make a good member given a few years and experiences of life behind him. That in his profile it’s quoted about being the School Captain says a bit. He needs to finish his degree, get a job in the big smoke, travel and then he’ll make a good politician I think. He seemed quite shocked after watching Frackman, on Friday night. I think was still believing the Gas Company propaganda and then he sees what is actually happening not that far away.

13. Thanks Suzy, G, believe me, I was not intending to offend anyone with cheap shots about vegans or unfair stereotypes about people who listen to Allan Jones. I just meant the same point as you have made – the anti natural gas (yes now we call it “coal seam gas” but it was once “natural”) issue now galvanises the entire community and all the political parties – the Greens, Labor, and the Coalition. Where would an anti-Gas voter then park his/her vote? Has it been neutralised (just thinking out loud…)

    But sorry if I confused you.

14. Considering “coalition” tends to mean Nat and not Lib in regional NSW, it’d be a bit dicey voting for the Nats if they then have to bend over and accept whatever the Libs from Sydney have decided, regardless of their (or their voters’) own opinions. They’re not as bolshie as their cousins in WA and SA can be, which is probably a downside on issues like this.

15. Thanks Coco Bunter, in many rural areas mainstream everyday people are getting very tired of the name calling, hence we get a bit thin skinned. What we know as ‘Natural Gas’ is an entirely different method of collection to ‘Coal Seam and Unconventional Gas’. Yes many promises by all candidates and parties but it’s up the community to see who they believe will carry their voice, certainly the Nationals haven’t represented rural people for many many years and this is only one issue that people are now sick of not being represented by their National Members over. So many promises by the Nationals but we know after the election the Liberals will say no and rural people get nothing, change is in the air in the country.

16. Well for the record Bryan Robins got 2%.

17. What was the final swing to Labor in Clarence? And what is the margin now?

18. According to ABC site; 21.5% 2PP new margin 10.4%. Primaries: NAT 51.1% (-12.4) ALP 28% (+18) GRN 9% (+2.2).

    Tweed saw 18.6% 2PP new margin 3.1%. Primaries NAT 47% (-15.1) ALP 36% (+14.6) GRN 13.3% (-0.8).

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