Senate – New South Wales – Australia 2013

Incumbent Senators

¹Bob Carr replaced Mark Arbib on 6 March 2012 after Senator Arbib’s resignation.
²Arthur Sinodinos replaced Helen Coonan on 13 October 2011 after Helen Coonan’s resignation.

History
Dating back to 1951, when the Senate for the first time was entirely made up of Senators elected by proportional representation, Senate representation from New South Wales has been relatively stable. Up until 1958 the numbers remained steady with 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and 1 Country Party senator. 1958 saw the Country Party win a seat off the ALP, giving the Coalition a 6-4 majority amongst NSW senators. The ALP gained two seats in 1961, giving them a 6-4 majority. The Country Party recovered a second seat in 1964, restoring an even balance of ALP and Coalition senators. In 1970, the sitting Country Party senator was defeated, as was the Country Party senator who had filled a casual vacancy, meaning that the party lost both its seats, while the Democratic Labor Party won a NSW senate seat for the only time. The result produced a 6-4 majority for the ALP over the right-wing parties.

The 1974 double dissolution restored the 5-4-1 balance between the Labor, Liberal and Country Party, which was maintained in 1975. 1977 saw the ALP lose one of its five senate seats to the Australian Democrats. This 4-4-1-1 balance was maintained in 1980. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Liberal Party lose a seat to the ALP, seeing five ALP senators, three Liberals, and one senator each for the Democrats and National Country Party. This result produced a 6-4 majority for parties of the left for the first time 1970. The ALP and Democrats collectively maintained a majority in the NSW senate delegation for the entirety of the Labor government.

The 1984 election saw the Senate’s size increased, with New South Wales gaining an eleventh and twelfth senator. The Democrats and the National Country Party each maintained a single senator whilst the ALP gained a sixth and the Liberals a fourth. The 1987 double dissolution saw the ALP lose its sixth senator to the Nuclear Disarmament Party. The 1990 election saw the ALP and Democrats each gain a senator, at the expense of the Liberals and NDP, producing a result of 6 ALP, 3 Liberals, 2 Democrats, 1 National. This gave the ALP and Democrats an 8-4 majority. In 1993 the Democrats lost a seat, with the Nationals gaining a second senator in NSW for the first time since 1970.

In 1996, the ALP lost a senate seat to the Liberals, producing an even split between the ALP and Democrats and the Coalition. The left gained a majority again, however, in 1998, when the Nationals lost a senator to the Democrats. In 2001, Democrat Vickie Bourne was defeated by Greens candidate Kerry Nettle, maintaining a 7-5 left-right split.

The last Democrat, Aden Ridgeway, was defeated in 2004, replaced by Nationals candidate Fiona Nash, restoring a 6-6 split between the ALP and Greens and the Coalition. The 2007 election saw the ALP win a sixth senate seat at the expense of the Greens. This was the first election since 1975 to result with NSW having no minor party senators, with a 6-6 split between the ALP and the Coalition.

In 2010, the Greens won back a single Greens seat, with former state MP Lee Rhiannon moving to the Senate. The ALP lost one of their three seats to the Greens, while the Liberal Party maintained their three seats.

Since the 2010 election, Mark Arbib was replaced by former Premier Bob Carr in 2012. Helen Coonan was replaced in 2011 by Arthur Sinodinos.

2010 result

The ALP and the Coalition each won two seats on first preferences.

After the elimination of most candidates, the final six candidates standing were:

• Fiona Nash (NAT) – 0.9388 quotas
• Lee Rhiannon (GRN) – 0.8198
• Steve Hutchins (ALP) – 0.5762
• Glenn Druery (LDP) – 0.3143
• Marianne Leishman (SXP) – 0.1800
• Jim Muirhead (SHO) – 0.1698

Preferences from the Shooters Party mostly flowed to the Coalition, electing Nash.

• Nash (NAT) – 1.0981
• Rhiannon (GRN) – 0.8203
• Hutchins (ALP) – 0.5779
• Druery (LDP) – 0.3154
• Leishman (SXP) – 0.1867

Nash’s preferences mostly flowed to Druery.

• Rhiannon (GRN) – 0.8340
• Hutchins (ALP) – 0.5871
• Druery (LDP) – 0.5767

The elimination of Druery saw a majority of his preferences flow to the Labor candidate, but enough votes flowed to the Greens to elect Lee Rhiannon. The final .09 of a quota was left undistributed.

• Rhiannon (GRN) – 1.0065
• Hutchins (ALP) – 0.8972
• Druery (LDP) – 0.0936

Candidates
The ALP is running:

1. Bob Carr
2. Doug Cameron
3. Ursula Stephens

The Coalition is running:

1. Marise Payne (LIB)
2. John Williams (NAT)
3. Arthur Sinodinos (LIB)

The Greens are running sitting state MP Cate Faehrmann. The DLP are running Simon McCaffrey. The Pirate Party are running Brendan Molloy. Patricia Petersen’s Australian Independents party is running Bradley Tanks. The Katter’s Australian Party is running Peter Mailler. The Christian Democratic Party is running Robyn Peebles. Family First are running Fiona Rossiter. The Stable Population Party is running William Bourke. The Palmer United Party is running Matt Adamson. The 21st Century Australia Party is running Cameron Curtis. The Animal Justice Party is running Mark Pearson. The Socialist Equality Party is running Nick Beams. The Secular Party is running Ian Bryce. The Wikileaks Party is running Kellie Tranter.

Assessment
The Greens did not win in 2010 with much of a buffer. If you assume that all of the remaining LDP preferences flowed to Hutchins, the margin was only .015 quotas, or a gap of less than 10,000 votes. If you assume all of Druery’s preferences remaining flow to the Greens (which is less likely) the gap is 120,000 votes, or just over one-tenth of a quota.

This, however, is an academic discussion, because there seems to be very little chance of Labor increasing their vote in 2013 sufficient to regain their third Senate seat.

The other possible change could come if the Coalition or another conservative candidate was to win a fourth right seat at the expense of one of the Labor senators. If you add the final count for the LDP to the three quotas for the electing Coalition candidates, and add the final count at the same point for the Greens and Labor to the quotas for the two elected Labor candidates, you get the following figures:

• Left – 3.4211 quotas
• Right – 3.5767 quotas

If you assume no major shifts in preference allocation, it would require a swing of about 0.43 of a quota from Labor, the Greens and other left parties to the Coalition and other right parties to give the seat to a conservative candidate.

This swing is just over 6% of the vote, and equates to a shift in about 250,000 votes on the 2010 figures.

This could take place through a swing in votes from the ALP and Greens to the Liberal Party, but could also take place if parties decide to change their preferences. If a new party such as the Wikileaks Party takes voters from the centre-left bloc but gives its preferences to a party outside that ALP and the Greens, that would equate to a swing.

There is another possibility which could see the left bloc reduced to two seats without a swing to the right equivalent to 6.2%. In 2010 the ALP came close to being overtaken by Glenn Druery at the key point. If Labor’s third candidate was knocked out, and their preferences were to flow to a minor right-wing candidate ahead of the Greens, it could see the right win four out of six seats. This is the scenario that saw Steve Fielding of Family First elected in 2004. This scenario will be prevented if the Greens manage to gain direct preferences from Labor ahead of all other groups.