Moore – WA 2013

NAT vs LIB 3.1%

Incumbent MP
Grant Woodhams, since 2008. Previously Member for Greenough 2005-2008.

Geography
Moore is a large regional electorate covering agricultural areas north of Perth. The seat includes rural areas around Geraldton, but excluding Geraldton itself. The seat covers the entirety of fourteen local government areas, and parts of two others.

Moore covers the towns of Kalbarri, Northampton, Nabawa, Mullewa, Dongara, Irwin, Mingenew, Morawa, Three Springs, Perenjori, Carnamah, Eneabba, Leeman, Coorow, Jurien Bay, Cervantes, Badgingarra, Dandaragan, Moora, Dalwallinu, Lancelin, Ledge Point, Guilderton, Gingin, Bindoon, Calingiri and Toodyay.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Moore is a traditional Country/National seat that was held by the party from 1950 until the mid-1980s.

In 1985 the sitting National Country MP switched to the Liberal Party. The Liberals held the seat from 1985 until 2008. Bill McNee held the seat from 1989 until 2005.

The 2008 redistribution saw the abolition of the National-held seat of Greenough, and Moore effectively was redrawn to cover most of the two pre-existing electorates.

Grant Woodhams had won Greenough for the Nationals in 2005. Prior to his election, the Liberal Party had held the seat since 1945.

In 2008, Woodhams was pitted against Liberal Member for Moore Gary Snook. While Snook led on the primary vote (40% against 32%) he benefited from Labor preferences and won the seat with 53.1% of the vote after preferences.

Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP Grant Woodhams is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Moore is a very conservative seat, but will be a marginal seat race between the two main conservative parties. With Woodhams’ retirement the Nationals will be fighting to hold on to their seat against their senior government partner.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Gary Snook LIB 7,556 40.5 -2.2
Grant Woodhams NAT 6,025 32.3 +9.9
Peter Johnson ALP 3,105 16.7 -3.4
Des Pike GRN 1,157 6.2 +0.8
Boyd Davey FF 389 2.1 +2.1
Bernie Wallace CDP 317 1.7 -0.2
David Shier IND 49 0.3 +0.3
Norman Gay CEC 45 0.2 +0.2

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Grant Woodhams NAT 9,884 53.1 +5,9
Gary Snook LIB 8,742 46.9 -5.9

 

 

Polling booths in Moore at the 2008 WA state election. Central in green, East in blue, North in orange, South in yellow.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas, along local government lines:

  • Central – Carnamah, Coorow, Irwin, Mingenew, Three Springs
  • East – Dalwallinu, Morawa, Perenjori
  • North – Chapman Valley, Greater Geraldton, Northampton
  • South – Chittering, Dandaragan, Gingin, Moora, Toodyay

A majority of ordinary votes were cast in the south. The Nationals won a majority of the primary vote in the East. The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in the south, while the Nationals topped the poll in the centre and the north.

Voter group LIB % NAT % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
South 45.88 24.50 18.15 6.89 8,015 42.99
Central 36.86 43.48 12.66 3.28 2,930 15.72
North 29.52 46.79 14.44 4.33 2,009 10.78
East 31.03 56.53 7.42 2.09 957 5.13
Other votes 40.34 27.60 19.40 8.50 4,732 25.38
Nationals primary votes in Moore at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes in Moore at the 2008 WA state election.
Labor primary votes in Moore at the 2008 WA state election.

6 COMMENTS

  4. They seem to have gone quiet on that one lately. I guess we’ll have to wait until the HTV cards come out to see.

    I’m really not sure which way this will go. I was thinking the Libs could take this one back with Woodhams retiring, but then I realised they’re both losing personal votes in a way (have a look at that map… blue or green for the sitting members pre-2008). It’s always been a tussle in this part of the world, and one-vote-one-value shook things up further. If Royalties for Regions has done what is was supposed to, and if the Nats could take the seat once held by WA’s longest-serving premier back in 2005, then I’d lean towards the Nats.

    Also: Labor came FIFTH in a couple of small towns here (Badgingarra and Coorow), beaten not only by the Nats and Libs, but also by the CDP and Greens. Campaigning there in a red T-shirt must be a load of fun.

  5. I think this seat will come down to Labor preferences. Even though the Labor vote is weak here, it is strong enough to influence the final outcome between the two conservative parties. I won’t be surprised if there is an upset to the Nationals here and the Libs win.

  6. Probably the Nationals, but a Liberal win wouldn’t surprise.
    Woodhams has been around for some time, so he’d probably have a strong personal vote. His personal vote and the popularity of Royalties for Regions may well balance things out.

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