Buninyong – Victoria 2014

ALP 1.6%

Incumbent MP
Geoff Howard, Member for Ballarat East since 1999.

Geography
Western Victoria. Buninyong covers southeastern parts of the City of Ballarat, most of Moorabool Shire and northern parts of Golden Plains Shire. In addition to Ballarat, the electorate covers Buninyong, Ballan, Haddon, Meredith and Mount Clear.

Map of Buninyong's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Buninyong’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Buninyong is a new name for the former electorate of Ballarat East, which underwent significant changes. On the northern end of Ballarat East, the town of Cheswick was transferred to Ripon and the towns of Daylesford, Hepburn Springs and Kyneton were transferred to Macedon. Buninyong gained areas to the east, west and south from Ripon, Melton and Polwarth respectively. The electorate’s borders in the Ballarat urban area were also re-aligned, gaining Sebastapol and losing parts of central Ballarat. These changes increased the ALP margin slightly from 1.5% to 1.6%.

History
Ballarat East first existed as a Victorian Legislative Assembly district from 1859 until 1927. It elected two members from 1859 until 1889, when it became a single-member district. The single member district was held by Liberal and Nationalist members from 1889 until 1924, when it was won by the ALP. The seat was abolished in 1927.

Ballarat East was recreated in 1992, and won by the Liberal Party’s Barry Traynor. He won with a slim 1.6% margin in 1992, which was cut to 1% in 1996, before he lost to the ALP’s Geoff Howard in 1999.

Howard increased his margin to 7.6% in 2002 before it was cut to 6.6% in 2006, and cut further to 1.5% in 2010.

Candidates

  1. Sonia Smith (Nationals)
  2. Ben Taylor (Liberal)
  3. Keith Geyer (Family First)
  4. James Keays (Country Alliance)
  5. Tony Goodfellow (Greens)
  6. Geoff Howard (Labor)

Assessment
Buninyong is a very marginal electorate, but if there is a statewide swing to Labor (as predicted by current polling), Geoff Howard should retain the seat.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ben Taylor Liberal 15,758 43.40 +9.8 42.29
Geoff Howard Labor 14,076 38.77 -4.18 41.15
Linda Zibell Greens 5,363 14.77 +3.01 11.03
Gary Greville Family First 1,109 3.05 -2.03 3.30
Country Alliance 1.08
Nationals 0.91
Socialist Alliance 0.06
Other independents 0.19

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Geoff Howard Labor 18,702 51.51 -5.13 51.60
Ben Taylor Liberal 17,604 48.49 +5.13 48.40
Polling places in Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election. Ballarat in yellow, North-East in blue South in red, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election. Ballarat in yellow, North-East in blue South in red, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Buninyong have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the City of Ballarat have been grouped together – a majority of ordinary votes were cast in this area.

The remainder of the electorate has been split into North-East, South and West.

The ALP won a 52.6% majority in the Ballarat area, and a 53% majority in the west of the seat. The Liberal Party won 52.2% in the south and 52.6% in the north-east.

The Greens came third in Buninyong, ranging from 9.5% in the north-east and west to 11.6% in Ballarat.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
Ballarat 11.62 52.59 13,550 40.10
North-East 9.50 47.44 3,507 10.38
West 9.48 53.03 2,975 8.80
South 10.12 47.81 1,324 3.92
Other votes 11.29 52.09 12,435 36.80
Two-party-preferred votes in Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Ballarat part of Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Ballarat part of Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in the Ballarat part of Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in the Ballarat part of Buninyong at the 2010 Victorian state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Possible Lib gain. The loss of the Daylesford/Hepburn region takes out a strong ALP-Green block of votes. The Sonia Smith (Nat) campaign, which wasn’t a factor last time, may help Ben Taylor get across the line by picking up some of the usual ALP vote.

  2. Originally had Buninyong as a possible Liberal gain, but now I think both Ballarat based seats will stick with Labor this election.

  3. The National candidate here is reportedly running an open ticket on account of the Liberal candidates position on restricting abortion access.

  5. Bad strategy for the libs to waste so much in campaigning in the region considering they will probably only pick up Ripon and that would have fallen regardless

Comments are closed.