Bass – Victoria 2014

LIB 12.4%

Incumbent MP
Ken Smith, since 2002. Previously MLC for South-Eastern 1988-2002.

Geography
Eastern Victoria. Bass covers regional areas to the southeast of Melbourne, including areas on the eastern side of Western Port. Bass covers Bass Coast Shire, southern parts of Cardinia Shire, and a small part of the City of Casey. It stretches from outer suburban Pakenham to the rural towns of Lang Lang and Wonthaggi and the coastal tourist centres of Phillip Island and Inverloch.

Map of Bass's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Bass’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Some minor changes were made to the northern borders of Bass, with some areas being transferred to Narracan, and changes were made to the borders with Hastings, Gembrook and Narre Warren South. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 12.6% to 12.4%.

History
Bass was created at the 2002 election, replacing the former seat of Gippsland West.

Gippsland West had been held by Kennett government minister Alan Brown from 1992 until late 1996, when he resigned to serve as Victoria’s Agent General.

The 1997 by-election was won by Susan Davies, an independent candidate who had previously been a member of the ALP. Davies supported the new Bracks minority government.

Davies contested the notional Liberal seat of Bass in 2002, as did Liberal MLC Ken Smith, whose South-Eastern province had been abolished in the redistribution.

Davies polled 21.8%, falling into third place, and Smith held the seat with a slim 0.6% margin. Smith increased his margin to 5.5% in 2006, and further again to 12.6% in 2010.

Ken Smith was elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly following the 2010 election. Smith’s Speakership was difficult in a chamber governed by a very slim coalition majority, and his position was constantly challenged by the Labor opposition. He resigned as Speaker in early 2014 after coming into conflict with rebel Liberal MP Geoff Shaw.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Ken Smith is not running for re-election.

  1. Ross Fairhurst (Greens)
  2. Clare Le Serve (Independent)
  3. Paul Reid (Australian Christians)
  4. Brian Paynter (Liberal)
  5. Angela Dorian (Rise Up Australia)
  6. Sanjay Nathan (Labor)
  7. David Amor (Country Alliance)

Assessment
Bass is a safe Liberal seat.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ken Smith Liberal 25,098 56.46 +10.1 55.14
Gerry Lonergan Labor 12,962 29.16 -5.83 29.15
Neil Rankine Greens 4,845 10.90 +2.04 11.58
Bruce Rogers Country Alliance 1,546 3.48 +3.48 3.35
Family First 0.36
Democratic Labor 0.10
Nationals 0.08
Sex Party 0.04
Other independents 0.19

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ken Smith Liberal 27,804 62.58 +7.06 62.40
Gerry Lonergan Labor 16,622 37.42 -7.06 37.60
Polling places in Bass at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, Pakenham in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Bass at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, Pakenham in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Bass have been divided into three parts. Those polling places around the Pakenham area have been grouped together, while the remainder of the electorate has been split into central and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.6% in Pakenham to 70.4% in Central.

The Greens vote ranged from 6.8% in Central to 16.9% in the South.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
South 16.86 61.27 8,583 25.24
Pakenham 8.05 56.55 7,219 21.23
Central 6.79 70.42 4,848 14.26
Other votes 11.84 62.41 13,356 39.28
Two-party-preferred votes in Bass at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Bass at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Bass at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Bass at the 2010 Victorian state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Labor ran dead in 2002 to help Davis the LegCo vote suggests that if Labor had campaigned they would have won the seat.

  2. Davis and the other 2 independents that sank the Jeff Kennett’s government did not amount to anything and are all gone now with a healthy parliamentary pension I might add.

  3. Accomplished more then dud ken smith did. Wasn’t a performing shadow minister and still found a way to stuff up the job of speaker!

  5. No she was actually the member for Gipsland West which was abolished and the notional liberal seat of Bass was made making it difficult to take if u haven’t represented most of the electorate and ur an independent.

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