LNP 61.19%
Incumbent MP
Ted Malone, since 1994.
Geography
North Queensland. Mirani covers regional parts of Queensland from the southern edge of Mackay to the outskirts of Rockhampton. The seat covers parts of Isaac, Mackay and Rockhampton local government areas, and the towns of Mount Morgan, Dysart and Middlemount.
History
The seat of Mirani has existed since 1912. Apart from the period 1935-1947, the seat has always been held by MPs who belonged to the Country Party, National Party and Liberal National Party.
Jim Randell held the seat for the National Party from 1980 until 1994. His resignation triggered the 1994 Mirani by-election.
Ted Malone won the 1994 by-election for the National Party. He joined the merged Liberal National Party in 2008. Malone was elected to his first full term in 1995 by a solid 59% margin, before dropping to a slim 53-54% in 1998 and 2001.
Malone increased his margin to 60.6% in 2004, but lost support in 2006.
The most recent redistribution in 2009 favoured Labor, and Mirani became a notional Labor seat. Malone held on by a slim margin of 50.6% in 2009, and then gained a swing of over 10% in 2012. While Malone had served as a shadow minister before the 2012 election, he moved to the backbench when the LNP won power in 2012. Malone was promoted to be Assistant Minister for Emergency Volunteers in November 2012.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ted Malone is not running for re-election.
- John Kerslake (Liberal National)
- Jim Pearce (Labor)
- Michael Hall (Palmer United)
- Trisha Brindley (Greens)
Assessment
Mirani is held by the LNP by a 61.2% margin, which is slightly less than the uniform swing the ALP needs to win back government across Queensland.
Mirani’s recent history is quite unusual. On the one hand, the seat has been held by the LNP and its predecessors for most of the last century. Malone’s margin peaked at just over 60% in 2004, which was a very bad year for the National/Liberal coalition in Queensland.
On the other hand, Mirani became substantially better for Labor in the 2009 redistribution, and Malone barely held on at the last election won by Labor.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ted Malone | Liberal National | 13,599 | 46.65 | -1.30 |
| Jim Pearce | Labor | 8,369 | 28.71 | -17.82 |
| Bevan Pidgeon | Katter’s Australian | 5,585 | 19.16 | +19.16 |
| Christine Carlisle | Greens | 975 | 3.34 | -2.17 |
| Mike Crouther | Family First | 626 | 2.15 | +2.15 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ted Malone | Liberal National | 15,345 | 61.19 | +10.6 |
| Jim Pearce | Labor | 9,733 | 38.81 | -10.60 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mirani have been divided into four groups. Polling places on the southern outskirts of Mackay have been grouped as ‘Mackay’. The rural booths in the Mackay council area have been grouped as ‘north’. Those in the Isaac council area have been grouped as ‘central’. The remaining booths, including those surrounding the Rockhampton area, have been grouped as ‘south’.
The LNP vote was highest in the north and in the Mackay area, polling around 50% of the primary vote and an estimated two-party-preferred vote of over 65%.
The ALP performed more strongly in the south and the centre, and the ALP’s two-party-preferred vote is estimated as being over 50% in the centre of the seat.
Katter’s Australian Party polled strongly, polling 17-18% in the south and in the Mackay area, and 21-22% in the north and central.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| North | 49.32 | 23.82 | 21.29 | 65.89 | 9,065 | 31.09 |
| South | 41.17 | 36.47 | 17.68 | 53.41 | 4,999 | 17.15 |
| Mackay | 50.48 | 25.37 | 17.46 | 65.31 | 4,301 | 14.75 |
| Central | 35.01 | 38.70 | 22.16 | 48.75 | 2,491 | 8.54 |
| Other votes | 48.53 | 28.10 | 17.69 | 62.44 | 8,298 | 28.46 |
This is now a mining electorate after absorbing much of Pearce’s old seat of Fitzroy. With him as candidate & Malone retiring a likely Labor gain.
I agree with Geoff, Jim Pearce is a likeable candidate and was a popular voice as Member for Fitzroy. Malone did well in 09 to just scrape in – with a pro-Labor swing across the state, the LNP stand to lose this seat.
Has anyone seen any internal polling or heard anything about Labor’s chances here? I’m sure this falls within the Abbot Point area doesn’t it? Surely has to help Labor. I notice Sportsbet have LNP faves in this seat now after Labor were faves last week. Weird.
Abbot Point is actually north of Bowen, which puts it within the Whitsunday electorate.
Actually, even further north than Whitsunday – it’s in the Burdekin electorate.
Hmmmm interesting. I wonder what effect that will have in Burdekin? I wouldn’t give Labor a hell’s hope there unfortunately.
Interesting seat.
Pearce did contest it in 2012, after opting to retire in 2009. That may explain the below average swing of 10.6%. (Mackay, Rockhampton, Whitsunday and Keppel were all in the mid-teens.) Of course that means Pearce’s personal vote is already factored into the margin.
Still, looks like the ALP’s best shot of the seats it didn’t hold prior to the last election.
Excluding Gladstone, of course…
Im feeling more confident about this for labor. Loss of personal vote and a seat that only went 55/45 to the libs at the federal election. Im gonna say this could be a crucial gain depending on whether the election tightens in the last week
Burdekin and this seat have boundaries which make them extremely marginal after factoring in a rough 10% swing