Tamworth – NSW 2015

NAT 6.8% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Kevin Anderson, since 2011.

Geography
Northern NSW. The seat of Tamworth covers Tamworth, Gunnedah and Walcha and surrounding areas. The seat covers the entirety of the Gunnedah, Tamworth and Walcha council areas, and a small part of the Liverpool Plains council area.

Map of Tamworth's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Tamworth’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Tamworth gained the entirety of Walcha local government area from Northern Tablelands and Oxley, and lost a small area to Barwon. The seat also gained a small area from Upper Hunter. These changes had a minimal impact on the seat’s margin.

History
The district of Tamworth was first created in 1880. It elected two members from 1880 to 1894. It has been a single-member district since 1894, although it was abolished for three elections in the 1920s. The seat has never been held by the ALP, or by the Liberal Party in its current form. The seat has been traditionally dominated by the Nationals, but in recent years has regularly elected independents.

Frank Chaffey won the seat as a Liberal candidate in 1913. He shifted to the multi-member district of Namoi in 1920, and returned to Tamworth in 1927. He held the seat until his death in 1940, serving as a member of the Nationalist party and the United Australia Party.

Frank Chaffey’s son Bill Chaffey won the seat at the 1940 by-election. He left the UAP in 1941, serving as an independent until he joined the Country Party in 1947.

The younger Chaffey was deputy leader of the Country Party from 1959 to 1968, serving as a minister from 1965 to 1968. He left the Country Party over political differences in 1972, serving as an independent until his retirement in 1973.

Tamworth was won in 1973 by Country Party candidate Noel Park. He held it until his retirement in 1991.

In 1991, the National Party originally preselected farmer Tony Windsor. He was replaced as the party’s candidate at the last minute due to allegations of drink driving. He managed to defeat the official National Party candidate.

The parliament elected in 1991 did not give a majority to either party, and Windsor supported a Liberal-National coalition government in minority until its defeat in 1995. He was re-elected in 1995 and 1999.

In 2001, Windsor resigned from Tamworth to contest the federal seat of New England. He won the seat and held it until his retirement in 2013.

The 2001 Tamworth by-election was won by National Party candidate John Cull. He defeated Tamworth mayor James Treloar, an independent endorsed by Windsor. Cull lost Tamworth in 2003 to independent candidate Peter Draper. Draper won re-election in 2007. Draper won with a 2.5% margin in 2003, which was increased to 4.8% in 2007.

In 2011, Draper lost to Nationals candidate Kevin Anderson with a 12.5% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
With Peter Draper recontesting, this seat could well be a close race. Anderson won with a 7.8% margin in 2011, but the recent redistribution cut this margin to 6.8%. A big swing away from the Coalition could see Draper regain his seat, but he may also struggle without incumbency, and against a Nationals MP who will be a beneficiary of incumbency, unlike in 2011.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Kevin Anderson Nationals 25,235 55.0 +14.7 54.2
Peter Draper Independent 17,237 37.6 -8.7 38.6
Paul Hobbs Labor 2,167 4.7 -3.9 4.5
Dheera Smith Greens 722 1.6 +0.4 1.5
Tony Gibson Independent 510 1.1 +1.1 1.1
Others 0.0

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Redist
Kevin Anderson Nationals 25,680 57.8 +12.5 56.8
Peter Draper Independent 18,786 42.2 -12.5 43.2

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Kevin Anderson Nationals 30,688 80.6 +5.7 80.7
Paul Hobbs Labor 7,388 19.4 -5.7 19.3
Polling places in Tamworth at the 2011 NSW state election.
Polling places in Tamworth at the 2011 NSW state election.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Tamworth have been split into five parts. Those polling places in the Gunnedah and Walcha local government areas have been grouped as “west” and “east” respectively.

Polling places in the Tamworth council area have been split into three parts. Those in the Tamworth urban area have been grouped as “Tamworth”, with the remainder split into “north” and “south”. The two booths in the Liverpool Plains council area have been grouped with “south”.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in four areas, ranging from 50.5% in the south to 62% in the west. In the east, the Nationals won 41.3% against independent Richard Torbay, who was running in the neighbouring seat of Northern Tablelands, which covered that area in 2011.

Voter group NAT 2CP % NAT prim % IND prim % Total % of votes
Tamworth 57.4 54.5 38.0 17,740 37.5
North 54.6 52.5 41.2 6,034 12.8
West 62.0 59.3 33.3 5,014 10.6
South 50.5 48.5 44.1 2,727 5.8
East 41.3 39.9 56.5 1,574 3.3
Other votes 58.4 55.5 37.1 14,169 30.0
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Tamworth at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Tamworth at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in the Tamworth urban area at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in the Tamworth urban area at the 2011 NSW state election.

14 COMMENTS

  1. Peter Draper’s wins in 2003 & 2007 were by fairly modest margins. Certainly nothing like the whopping totals Richard Torbay used to run up next door. (The recalculated NAT v IND vote presumably assigns Torbay’s votes to Draper.)

    Now that he’s out, I think he’ll find it hard to get back in.

  2. Agreed here. A good comparison is Maryborough in Qld last month, where Chris Foley lost to the LNP in 2012 and then came third when he re-contested. The differences are: (a) Draper is very likely to come second, considering Labor only got a deeply pathetic 4.7% in 2011 (just like Qld LNP in Gladstone, that’s too much to come back from), (b) NSW Labor aren’t likely to do as well as their cousins north of the Tweed, and (c) with four year terms instead of three, Tamworth folk have had that much more time to forget who he was (unless he’s been doing something notable since leaving parliament). Those things probably balance each other out, so Draper is about as likely to win as Foley was. Not very.

  4. Being an election where a change of government isn’t likely, you’d think it would be a very advantageous climate for independents, so Draper has that in his favour, as does the fact that he’d already beaten Anderson once, in 2007, but I agree it seems unlikely that he’d come back and win now, when he hadn’t won by a very convincing margin in 2007, another election year that was relatively good for independents.

  5. Foley couldn’t win his seat back at the Queensland election and the factors there were (IMO) at lot more favourable than it is to Draper in Tamworth. Think the Nationals hold on.

  6. Sportsbet offering $2.50 for the Nats here, and $1.50 for Draper.

    Seems like good odds for the Nat in my opinion.

  7. Its worth a punt at $2-50 but the Independent has a good chance
    New England region has always had strong Independent attitude
    Not one eyed hillbillies like in some NATS seats

  9. I certainly wouldn’t write Draper off. Baird got a pretty hostile reception from angry farmers when he visited Tamworth recently, and the fact that the Premier and senior ministers are visiting the electorate itself suggests they have reason for some concern. Based on past experience I think we’re right to be cautious about the potential of an electoral backlash against the Nats over coal-mining in the Liverpool Plains, which seems to be the basis of the predictions of a Draper win. I’d tend to think the odds the other way around, Draper $2.50, would seem more appropriate.

  10. Draper will win this in a canter. CSG and the encroachment of mining on the Liverpool Plains. All the Nats have is law and order, which is code for Abbott’s “lifestyle choices”. Tony Windsor held this seat and anointed Draper, and a lot of people now understand why he backed Gillard over Abbott.

  11. Disagree with Lachlan, I think Anderson will win this again quite comfortably. Draper’s primary vote will fall this time and Labor’s will increase marginally.

  12. Lachlan is actually right, its a huge issue and Draper will benefit more from that. The Nationals have been underwhelming and this time have the struggle of holding Monaro as well as the North Coast and the Upper Hunter. Stoner was also a well established Nationals leader who is now gone. Lachlan makes a good point that Draper suffered from the anti-independent mood that swept the cross bench. This will be reversed and as yo can see, Anderson will struggle to gain any preferences if it comes that preferences flow strong to Draper if voters allocate them

  13. I’m told that the Nats are worried about all the northern seats: Tamworth, Lismore, Ballina, Tweed, tho apparently not Tablelands.

Comments are closed.