Kiama – NSW 2015

LIB 8.6%

Incumbent MP
Gareth Ward, since 2011.

Geography
South coast. Kiama covers Kiama local government areas and parts of the neighbouring Shellharbour and Shoalhaven council areas, along with a small peripheral part of the City of Wollongong. The seat stretches from Albion Park in the north to Bomaderry in the south.

Map of Kiama's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Kiama’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Kiama lost Robertson to Goulburn, and Shell Cove to Shellharbour. Kiama expanded further into the Shoalhaven council area, gaining West Nowra and Nowra Hill and rural areas to the west of Nowra. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 7.5% to 8.6%.

History
The current incarnation of the electoral district of Kiama has existed since 1981, and has always been won by the ALP. There was a previous single-member district of Kiama from 1859 to 1904.

Kiama was created at the 1981 election. Throughout the 1970s Kiama had been part of the district of Wollondilly. The first member for Kiama was the ALP’s Bill Knott. Knott had been elected Member for Wollondilly in 1978. He moved to Kiama in 1981 and was re-elected in 1984. He retired on medical grounds in 1986.

The 1986 by-election was won by the Labor candidate, Shellharbour mayor Bob Harrison. He won re-election in 1991 and 1995, retiring in 1999.

Kiama was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Matt Brown. Brown was appointed a minister following the 2007 election. In September 2008, he was appointed Minister for Police in the first cabinet under new Premier Nathan Rees. Three days later he was forced to resign after revelations of his conduct at a party in his office. He returned to the backbench after his resignation.

At the 2011 election, Brown lost Kiama to Liberal candidate Gareth Ward with a 19.4% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Current polls suggest Labor is on track for a swing of about 10%, which would be enough for Labor to regain Kiama. This seat will likely be a close contest.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Gareth Ward Liberal 19,898 42.5 +12.0 43.8
Matt Brown Labor 13,366 28.6 -22.1 27.6
Sandra McCarthy Independent 6,009 12.8 +12.8 12.5
Ben Van Der Wijngaart Greens 4,126 8.8 +0.2 9.0
Steve Ryan Christian Democrats 1,805 3.9 -0.9 3.9
Adrian Daly Independent 1,576 3.4 +3.4 3.2

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Gareth Ward Liberal 23,030 57.5 +19.4 58.6
Matt Brown Labor 17,052 42.5 -19.4 41.4
Polling places in Kiama at the 2011 NSW state election. Albion Park in blue, Kiama in green, Shoalhaven in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Kiama at the 2011 NSW state election. Albion Park in blue, Kiama in green, Shoalhaven in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Kiama have been split into three parts according to local government boundaries: Albion Park (covering Shellharbour council area booths), Kiama and Shoalhaven.

There was a wide variation in two-party-preferred votes between these areas. The Liberal Party won 56% in Kiama, and a massive 69% majority in Shoalhaven, while Labor won 59% in Albion Park.

Independent candidate Sandra McCarthy came third, with a vote ranging from 7.2% in Shoalhaven to 23.6% in Kiama.

The Greens vote ranged from 6.3% in Albion Park to 10% in Kiama and Shoalhaven.

Voter group LIB 2PP % IND % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Shoalhaven 69.0 7.2 9.9 11,722 25.8
Kiama 56.2 23.6 10.0 9,949 21.9
Albion Park 41.1 9.4 6.3 8,450 18.6
Other votes 61.7 11.0 9.1 15,376 33.8
Two-party-preferred votes in Kiama at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Kiama at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Sandra McCarthy in Kiama at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Sandra McCarthy in Kiama at the 2011 NSW state election.

7 COMMENTS

  2. Strange redistribution.

    Now wraps behind into uninhabited territory behind Nowra all the way to the Morton National Park. I’d imagine there wouldn’t be many voters out here so it would only be an insignficant change to the margin.

    Possible Labor gain, lots of construction in this electorate especially with the Berry bypass so maybe the swing here won’t be as strong as in other parts iof the state,

  3. Possible Liberal retain but will be very close. Gareth Ward has been a successful local candidate in his first term.

  4. Another close finish but Gareth Ward has been one of the most effective first term MPs for the Coalition and has secured many significant projects and funding for his Electorate. The Liberal’s should hold this but by only about 2%.

  5. He has been one of the most partisan people in Macquarie street. He is finally up against a quality candidate this time in an electorate that on federal figures is a tossup. I don’t know if anyone can call this yet

  6. It’s close, but I doubt Captain Underpants had a significant personal vote, and I suspect the Coalition will get hit the hardest in regional NSW. Add that McCarthy was an ex-ALP indie, and I think Labor pinch this.

  7. Matt Brown could have had a negative personal vote. The local paper loathed him and he became somewhat iconic as a clown of the last Government.

    I think the Labor candidate, at $2.75, is among the best value going.

Comments are closed.