ALP 3.9%
Incumbent MP
Clayton Barr, since 2011.
Geography
Hunter region. Cessnock covers the entirety of the Cessnock council area, along with a small part of Lake Macquarie council area. Cessnock also covers about half of the landmass of the Singleton council area, but there is very few residents in this area. The seat’s main centres are Cessnock and Kurri Kurri, as well as the suburbs of Barnsley, Cameron Park and Edgeworth on the fringe of the Lake Macquarie urban area.
Redistribution
Substantial changes were made to the area covered by Cessnock, but most of those areas that were shifted have a very low population. The north-western corner of the City of Newcastle was moved from Cessnock to Wallsend, and Belford and Lower Belford were transferred to Upper Hunter. In exchange, Cessnock gained the sparsely populated areas at the south-western end of the Cessnock and Singleton council areas.
History
The electoral district of Cessnock was first created in 1913. It was merged in the multi-member district of Maitland in 1920, but was restored in 1927. In that time, it has been won by the ALP at all but one election. It was won by the Liberal Party in 1988, before being won back by the ALP in 1991.
Cessnock was won in 1927 by the ALP’s Jack Baddeley. He had served as member for the multi-member district of Newcastle since 1922. He served as a minister in a number of Labor governments, from 1925 to 1927, from 1930 to 1932 and from 1941 until his retirement in 1949. He served as Deputy Premier from 1941 to 1947 and served as acting Premier for a period in 1948.
The ALP’s John Crook won the 1949 by-election, and held the seat until his retirement in 1959. He was succeeded in 1959 by George Neilly, who had been a member of the Legislative Council since 1954.
Neilly retired in 1978, and was succeeded by Bob Brown. He served less than one term, resigning in 1980 to take the federal seat of Hunter. He moved to the federal seat of Charlton in 1984. He served as a federal minister from 1988 to 1993, and retired in 1998. He was succeeded in Charlton by his daughter Kelly Hoare, who held it until 2007.
The 1981 Cessnock by-election was won by Stan Neilly, the son of the former MP George. He held the seat at the 1981 and 1984 elections, but in 1988 he lost Cessnock by 275 votes to the Liberal Party’s Bob Roberts, a Singleton shire councillor.
Roberts only held the seat for one term, losing to the younger Neilly in 1991. Neilly held the seat until his retirement in 1999.
Cessnock was won in 1999 by Cessnock councillor Kerry Hickey. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 2003 to 2007. His career was buffetted by a number of scandals, including drink driving charges in 2006 and revelations that he had an affair with a staff member and had fathered a child.
Hickey retired in 2011, and Cessnock was won by Labor candidate Clayton Barr.
Candidates
- Jessica Price-Purnell (Nationals)
- Julie Johnson (Christian Democratic Party)
- Domenic Lopreiato (No Land Tax)
- Lindy Williams (Greens)
- Clayton Barr (Labor)
Assessment
Cessnock should be safely retained by Labor in 2015.
2011 election result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Clayton Barr | Labor | 15,812 | 34.5 | -20.3 | 34.0 |
Alison Davey | Nationals | 11,309 | 24.7 | -6.7 | 25.2 |
Dale Troy | Independent | 8,640 | 18.8 | +18.8 | 18.7 |
James Ryan | Greens | 3,913 | 8.5 | -5.3 | 8.6 |
Allan Stapleford | Independent | 2,297 | 5.0 | +5.0 | 4.8 |
Allan McCudden | Independent | 2,284 | 5.0 | +5.0 | 4.6 |
Wayne Riley | Christian Democrats | 1,598 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 3.4 |
Others | 0.7 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Clayton Barr | Labor | 18,679 | 54.4 | -8.1 | 53.9 |
Alison Davey | Nationals | 15,687 | 45.6 | +8.1 | 46.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Cessnock have been split into five areas. Booths in the two main towns of Cessnock and Kurri Kurri have been grouped together. Remaining polling places have been split into east, west and north.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 53.3% in the east to 58.9% in Kurri Kurri. These three areas make up a significant majority of the seat’s population. The Nationals won a majority of 52.1% in the north and 53.9% in the west.
Primary votes for independent Dale Troy ranged from 13.7% in the north to 22.7% in Cessnock.
Greens primary votes ranged from 5.9% in Cessnock to 11.3% in the west.
Voter group | ALP 2PP % | IND % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
East | 53.3 | 20.1 | 8.6 | 10,004 | 23.7 |
Kurri Kurri | 58.9 | 17.8 | 10.3 | 8,471 | 20.1 |
Cessnock | 55.4 | 22.7 | 5.9 | 7,020 | 16.6 |
North | 47.9 | 13.7 | 6.5 | 3,670 | 8.7 |
West | 46.1 | 19.7 | 11.3 | 3,042 | 7.2 |
Other votes | 54.5 | 16.8 | 8.8 | 10,006 | 23.7 |
My prediction: Easy Labor hold, particularly after the vote-splitting of 2011 that denied the Nationals victory.