ALP 7.2%
Incumbent MP
Barbara Perry, since 2001.
Geography
Western Sydney. The seat of Auburn covers all of Auburn local government area, southern parts of the City of Parramatta, and a small part of the Strathfield council area. It includes the suburbs of Auburn, Berala, Lidcombe, Rookwood, Regents Park, Silverwater and South Granville.
Redistribution
Auburn lost its southernmost suburbs: Chullora to Lakemba, and Birrong and Sefton to Bankstown. In exchange, Auburn gained South Granville from Granville. These changes cut the Labor margin from 8.5% to 7.2%.
History
Auburn was first created at the 1927 election. The seat has always been held by either the Labor Party, or by members of the Lang family representing one of a number of breakaway Lang Labor parties.
The seat was first won in 1927 by the defeated premier, Jack Lang. Lang had held the seat of Granville from 1913 to 1920, when he won one of the seats for the district of Parramatta. He became Premier following the 1925 election.
At the 1927 election, proportional representation was replaced by single-member districts, and Auburn was created. Lang won the seat, but lost power.
Lang held Auburn continuously for almost twenty years. He served again as Premier from 1930 to 1932, when he was sacked by the governor and lost the following election. He led a breakaway party from the ALP from 1940 to 1941 and again in 1943.
Lang resigned from Auburn in 1946, and won the federal seat of Reid. He held the seat until 1949, when he lost an attempt at re-election in the new seat of Blaxland.
Jack Lang’s son, James, won the seat of Auburn at a 1946 by-election. He won re-election in 1947, but lost in 1950 following a redistribution.
The rural seat of Ashburnham had been abolished at the redistribution, and the Labor member for the seat, Edgar Dring, moved to Auburn after serving in Ashburnham since 1941. Dring held Auburn until his death in 1955.
Auburn was won in 1956 by the ALP’s Thomas Ryan. A former Langite, he had returned to the ALP in protest at the preselection of the younger Lang to replace his father. He held the seat until 1965, when he lost preselection.
Peter Cox replaced Ryan in 1965. He served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1976 to 1988. He retired in 1988, and the ALP lost badly in the polls.
Peter Nagle retained Auburn for the ALP in 1988. He held it until his retirement in 2001. The 2001 by-election was won by Barbara Perry, and she was re-elected in 2003, 2007 and 2011.
In the lead-up to the 2015 election, Perry faced a serious preselection challenge from Auburn councillor Hicham Zraika. The preselection dragged on, and in December 2014 Labor leader John Robertson resigned, and was replaced by upper house MP Luke Foley. In early 2015, a new preselection was called for Auburn, which was won by Luke Foley after Perry and Zraika both withdrew.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Barbara Perry is not running for re-election. Labor leader Luke Foley has been a member of the Legislative Council since 2010.
- Kays Ahmed (No Land Tax)
- Ronney Oueik (Liberal)
- Raema Walker (Christian Democratic Party)
- Malikeh Michels (Greens)
- Luke Foley (Labor)
- Paul Garrard (Independent)
Assessment
Auburn is a safe Labor seat.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Barbara Perry | Labor | 20,377 | 46.3 | -14.0 | 45.6 |
| Ned Attie | Liberal | 14,159 | 32.2 | +17.9 | 33.3 |
| Michael Kiddle | Greens | 2,969 | 6.7 | +2.7 | 6.5 |
| Salim Mehajer | Independent | 2,964 | 6.7 | +6.7 | 5.5 |
| Raema Walker | Christian Democrats | 2,323 | 5.3 | +1.4 | 4.6 |
| Jamal Daoud | Independent | 759 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.4 |
| Carolyn Kennett | Socialist Equality | 477 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.9 |
| Others | 2.2 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Barbara Perry | Labor | 22,199 | 58.5 | -20.3 | 57.2 |
| Ned Attie | Liberal | 15,758 | 41.5 | +20.3 | 42.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Auburn have been split into three parts: north, south and west. Polling places in the Auburn council area have been split into “north” and “south”, while those in the South Granville area have been grouped as “west”.
The ALP’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 48% in the west to 61% in the south. This means that the Liberal Party won a 52% majority in the west of the seat.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | GRN % | IND % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 61.1 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 16,069 | 39.4 |
| North | 55.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 8,858 | 21.7 |
| West | 48.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5,908 | 14.5 |
| Other votes | 58.1 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 9,997 | 24.5 |
My prediction: Easy Labor hold, particularly with Opposition Leader Luke Foley as candidate.
Labor will at least get 66.6% 2PP here. Interesting that with the new boundaries, that Auburn perhaps may not be a permanently Labor stronghold should boundaries remain the same in coming elections. A lot of suburbs which could conceivably vote Liberal on a good day. Foley is a quality candidate, much like Barbara Perry who will be missed.
A good day? The NSW Liberal party might never have a better day than the 26th of March 2011.
Yeah, Newington and the Homebush Bay area will keep this a little more “Liberal” than other western Sydney Labor seats, but Lidcombe and Auburn are pretty rusted on.
Longer term I can see a growing Liberal vote as people get priced out of areas closer to the city, but we’re talking decades here.
Former Parramatta Lord Mayor, and current Councillor, Paul Garrard is running in this seat. He ran in Granville in 2007 and 2011, mostly in protest against the imposition of David Borger from the ALP State Executive.
Even though Garrard has not been a member of the ALP for a long while now, there are rumours that he is still a close ally of Laurie Ferguson. This would make sense, given Garrard and Ferguson’s long-standing links with the Granville area.
Garrard’s strong area of South Granville was redistributed into Auburn, while his daughter, Michelle, is running for Parramatta. Technically, they are independents, but are in the process of setting up a community-based party for next year’s Parramatta Council elections.
Is it safe to say that Garrard cost Borger victory in 2011?
A fair comment, I believe. Presuming that half of Garrard’s voters were otherwise rusted-on ALP supporters, that may have been enough for Borger to retain the seat, if Garrard had not run for Granville in 2011.
predict liberal will win with a slim margin less that 5% based on the ground stats and surveys, swing will go towards current mayor of Auburn
What ground stats and surveys are they?
The “my MP is the leader” factor would get Foley home here even if this wasn’t a safe seat. No chance of the Liberals getting close.
Well, for what it’s worth…apparently Baird and his daughter spent yesterday touring Auburn.
Either there really is something strange going on in this seat….or the Libs are so confident of victory, they can afford to waste time trolling Foley in his own seat.
The supposed my MP is leader effect sure didn’t work for Newman. But I still predict an ALP retain here.
Libs would be in Auburn because, being Foley’s future seat, they knew it would get in the news. (May also have been a small boost for important adjoining seats).
Auburn is no Bennelong/Ashgrove. If Labor lost Auburn, they wouldn’t have half a dozen seats left. Not going to happen. Foley to win with a 10-15% margin.