LIB 27.1%
Incumbent MP
Greg Aplin, since 2003.
Geography
Southwestern NSW. Albury covers all of Albury, Corowa, Greater Hume, Jerilderie, Tumbarumba and Urana local government areas, and a small part of Tumut Shire. The main centres of the seat are the city of Albury itself and the town of Corowa.
Redistribution
Most of Albury’s boundaries remained constant, but the seat expanded to the north-west, taking in Jerilderie and Urana council areas from Murray-Darling. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 26.9% to 27.1%.
History
The electoral district of Albury has existed since 1880, with the exception of three terms in the 1920s. It has been dominated by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, but has occasionally been won by the Labor Party.
The ALP held the seat from 1930 to 1932, when it was won by United Australia Party candidate Alexander Mair. He joined the conservative state government as an assistant minister following the 1938 election. He quickly rose to the position of Treasurer, and in 1939 he became Premier after the sitting UAP Premier, Bertram Stevens, lost the confidence of the House.
Mair served as Premier for the next two years, leading a dysfunctional government that was defeated by Labor at the 1941 election.
Mair led the UAP in opposition, and when the UAP disintegrated in 1943, he became leader of the splinter Democratic Party. He resigned as leader in 1944, and helped form the new Liberal Party.
When the first leader of the NSW Liberal Party, Reginald Weaver, died in 1945, he became leader, serving for only four months. Later in 1946, he resigned from Albury in an unsuccessful attempt to move to the Senate.
The ALP’s John Hurley won Albury at the 1946 by-election. He had won through leakage of preferences between the Liberal and Country candidates. He lost his seat at the 1947 election, losing by only 27 votes to Doug Padman, a Liberal candidate also endorsed by the Country Party.
Padman, a former Mayor of Albury, held the seat from 1947 until his retirement in 1965.
Gordon Mackie held Albury for the Liberal Party from 1965 until 1978, when he lost his seat to the ALP’s Harold Mair. Mair held it for a decade, losing in 1988.
Ian Glachan won the seat of Albury in 1988. He held the seat until his retirement in 2003.
Greg Aplin has held Albury since 2003 for the Liberal Party. Aplin served on the frontbench in opposition but was not appointed to the ministry when the Coalition won power in 2011.
Candidates
- Ross Jackson (Labor)
- Kym Wade (Christian Democratic Party)
- John Marra (No Land Tax)
- Greg Aplin (Liberal)
- Niloufer King (Greens)
Assessment
Albury is a safe Liberal seat.
2011 election result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Greg Aplin | Liberal | 26,316 | 61.1 | -4.2 | 61.8 |
Darren Cameron | Labor | 6,566 | 15.2 | -12.1 | 15.3 |
Paul Wareham | Independent | 6,276 | 14.6 | +14.6 | 14.0 |
Colin Hesse | Greens | 2,188 | 5.1 | -2.2 | 5.0 |
Rhonda Avasalu | Christian Democrats | 1,101 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 2.5 |
Stephen Bingle | Democrats | 617 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.4 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Greg Aplin | Liberal | 28,606 | 76.9 | +7.9 | 77.1 |
Darren Cameron | Labor | 8,609 | 23.1 | -7.9 | 22.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Albury have been split into four parts. Polling places in the city of Albury have been grouped together – and they make up a majority of ordinary votes cast on election day. Booths in the Tumbarumba council area have been grouped as ‘east’ and those in the Greater Hume council area have been grouped as ‘central’. The remaining booths were grouped as ‘west’, including those redistributed from Murray-Darling.
The Liberal primary vote ranged from 57% in Albury to 69% in Central.
Labor came second, with a vote ranging from 13% in central to 21.5% in the east. Independent candidate Paul Wareham’s vote ranged from 8% in the east to 18% in Albury. Wareham outpolled Labor in the Albury urban area.
Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | IND % | Total | % of votes |
Albury | 57.0 | 14.9 | 18.0 | 21,803 | 48.7 |
West | 66.9 | 18.6 | 8.4 | 7,200 | 16.1 |
Central | 69.2 | 13.2 | 9.6 | 4,897 | 10.9 |
East | 61.3 | 21.5 | 7.8 | 1,764 | 3.9 |
Other votes | 65.7 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 9,106 | 20.3 |
My prediction: Easy Liberal hold.
Not so easy, incumbant long overdue for replacement.