Blue Mountains – NSW 2011

ALP 11.1%

Incumbent MP
Phil Koperberg, since 2007.

Geography
 Western fringe of Sydney. The seat of Blue Mountains almost exactly matches the boundaries of the Blue Mountains local government area, with the exception of a small part of the lower mountains included in the neighbouring district of Penrith.

History
 The seat of Blue Mountains was first created in 1968. It’s history has been dominated by Labor MPs, but it was held by either a Liberal MP or conservative independent during periods of Coalition government up to 1976 and between 1988 and 1995.

The seat was first won in 1968 by conservative independent Harold Coates. A Lithgow councillor for almost forty years, Coates had previously run as a Liberal candidate unsuccessfully, and had first run as an independent for the seat of Hartley in 1962, losing to the sitting Labor MP by 234 votes. Hartley covered Lithgow and the upper Blue Mountains. Coates won Hartley in 1965, and moved to Blue Mountains in 1965 when a redistribution saw the former seat of Hartley shift deeper into the mountains and change name.

Coates was re-elected in 1971 and 1973, before losing to the ALP’s Mick Clough in 1976 by a bare 236 votes. In Coates’ career, the Liberal Party never ran against him, and he was considered a supporter of the Liberal-Country coalition.

The 1980 redistribution shifted the boundaries of Blue Mountains, moving the town of Lithgow into the neighbouring seat of Bathurst. At the 1981 election, Clough defeated the sitting Country Party Member for Bathurst by 31 votes. Clough held Bathurst until 1988, and again from 1991 until his retirement in 1999.

Clough was succeeded in Blue Mountains in 1981 by Bob Debus. Debus joined the ministry in 1986, serving in that role until the 1988 election, when he lost his seat to the Liberal Party’s Barry Morris.

Morris was re-elected in 1991, but his second term in Parliament took a bizarre turn. Morris had a bad relationship with Blue Mountains City Council. In 1992, a bomb ripped through the council building, not killing anyone but doing significant damage to the building. A year later a phone call to the local newspaper threatened the life of a councillor who had regularly clashed with Morris. The tape of the phone call was passed on to the Labor opposition, which led to a campaign in the Parliament against Morris.

In 1994, Morris was charged with making threatening phone calls on a number of occasions. He resigned from Parliament and from the Liberal Party in late 1994.

In 1995, Bob Debus won back Blue Mountains. Morris ran as an independent, winning 16%. Debus served as a minister in the state Labor government until his retirement in 2007. Debus  was elected as federal member for Macquarie in 2007, serving as Minister for Home Affairs from 2007 to 2009. He retired from federal politics after one term in 2010.

Blue Mountains was won by Phil Koperberg, former commissioner of the Rural Fire Service and ALP candidate. Koperberg joined the Iemma government’s ministry in 2007. He was stood down in late 2007 due to allegations of domestic violence against his former wife. The charges were dismissed, but he stepped down from the ministry in early 2008.

Candidates

Political situation
The Blue Mountains will be very hard for the ALP to retain. In all likelihood the seat will fall to the Liberals. The seat has been a strong one for the Greens. In the 2010 by-election for the neighbouring seat of Penrith, the ALP was outpolled by the Greens in all four Mountains booths.

The Greens campaign has been eclipsed by independent councillor Janet Mays, and she will be relying on Labor and Greens preferences if she is to be a challenge to the Liberal frontrunner.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Phil Koperberg ALP 17,449 40.8 -4.8
Michael Paag LIB 12,179 28.5 +1.2
Pippa McInnes GRN 6,947 16.2 -1.0
Robert Stock IND 4,700 11.0 +11.0
Robert Dwight AAFI 837 2.0 +2.0
Bob Wilcox ORP 675 1.6 +1.6

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Phil Koperberg ALP 22,413 61.1 -3.7
Michael Paag LIB 14,298 38.9 +3.7

Booth breakdown
Booths in the Blue Mountains have been divided into five geographic areas. Starting at the eastern end of the seat, these areas are Lower Mountains, Springwood, Central Mountains, Katoomba, and West.

The ALP won a majority in all areas. The biggest was over 68% in Katoomba and 64% in the central Mountains. The ALP polled a smaller majority of 57-59% in the other three parts of the seat. The Greens polled over 20% in Katoomba and the west of the seat, with their vote declining as you head into the lower mountains. The strongest vote for the independent Stock was also in Katoomba and the west.

 

 

Polling booths in the Blue Mountains at the 2007 state election. Lower Mountains in red, Springwood in blue, Central Mountains in yellow, Katoomba in green, West in orange.

 

 

 

Voter group GRN % IND % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Springwood 12.7 9.7 58.1 11,699 27.3
Central Mountains 17.8 12.1 64.1 7,956 18.6
Katoomba 22.3 15.9 68.6 5,962 13.9
Lower Mountains 11.7 7.8 57.1 5,444 12.7
West 20.0 15.2 59.2 3,116 7.3
Other votes 16.9 8.8 61.1 8,610 20.1
Two-party-preferred votes in the Blue Mountains at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in the Blue Mountains at the 2007 state election.
Primary votes for independent Robert Stock in the Blue Mountains at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Springwood at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Springwood at the 2007 state election.
Primary votes for independent Robert Stock in Springwood at the 2007 state election.

22 COMMENTS

  1. The Greens in the Blue Mountains got a 6% swing in the Council Election in 2008 and as Ben pointed out, the 4 blue mountains booths in Penrith went pretty well for the Greens. The tough bit for the Greens here will be local media coverage, they don’t seem very keen to report on the Greens. Having met Kerrin and knowing how enthusiastic the Greens are in the Blue Mountains, I reckon it’ll be a great result for them.

    I do not think that Mays will benefit from any significant preference flow because she has ruled out preferencing any party, I doubt anyone is going to be willing to give her a spot on the how to vote in return for nothing on an optional preferential system. No doubt she will do very well on the primary vote though, as well as some preferences from people who don’t follow the card.

    The Liberals here are very representative of the conservative right, I think that it is a point that will be raised by the various parties and independents throughout this campaign.

  2. This depends on preference flows between Labor and Greens, but with OPV I don’t believe Labor are any chance of holding a Liberal surge.

  3. The Libs will be the favourites however consider this. Of all the state districts in NSW, the Blue Mountains was one of only a very few which swung to Labor two party preferred at the fed election. Labor’s primary dipped however the Greens surged. Well and truly, the Blue Mountains region is a Progressive hot spot in NSW. I really do think that itll be a three horse race between Labor, the Libs and the Greens. The Libs will have a 55% chance of winning, along with the the Greens + Labor having a 20% chance each and the IND with a 5% chance. I think ull end up seeing Sage win 55-45 2pp

  4. Good analysis Supun Liyanage, and as you can gather from the information in the seat profile, Blue Mountains has been the litmus test seat at NSW state elections since 1968 (or 1976, if you don’t count Coates’ support for the Coalition).

    Another reason why it should fall to the Liberals this election.

  5. I don’t think the Blue Mountains can be used as a litmus test seat anymore given the high Green influence which is extremely abnormal relative to the State vote. The Blue Mountains will go to the Liberals this time, but in close co-alition wins, it will be a Labor seat and maybe a Green one over time (but unlikely).

  6. Janet Mays claims to be transparent, but there is no opportunity to challenge her or debate her policies on her website. All of the comments are moderated and anyone who challenges her politics has there comment removed. This is not the sign of a good candidate who is willing to be open and transparent about her real policies.

    A background in finance and business, charity work involving fundraising does not mean your are hard working and ethical individual.

  7. The Greens polled significantly better across most booths in this seat at the 2010 federal election than in the last state election, another indicator that the Greens could be strong contenders here.

    Another declared candidate listed on Antony Green’s guide is Jeanette McLean for the CDP. Blue Mountains was actually the seat where the CDP got their greatest share of the upper house vote in 2007, with 7.75%.

  9. Potentially a very messy contest but a Lib win.

    Holding this seat, however, is likely to be another matter. Under most circumstances, ALP should hold this seat & I would expect this to revert within 1-2 terms.

  10. Note Transperancy’s comment. The dirt is being flung at Mays. What does this tell you? Mays is getting big support. I worked on the Greens council campaign in 2008 and that came off the back of the anti-electricity privatisation campaign, which started in Katoomba at a politics in the pub months before Unions NSW – or the ALP rank and file – got their act together. The ALP helped by running a very ordinary candidate. Green candidate, El Gibbs, topped the poll in ward one (Wenty Falls to Mt Vic) – but she has captured some of the zeitgeist of the upper mountains by quitting the Greens.

    And for Transparency: try and debate the Greens candidate on anything anywhere and you will see why they will get the result they are going to get, she is a very special human being.

    Mays is soaking up the ‘progressive hot spot’ and not spooking the horses with local tories (who can’t stand the godbotherers pushing the Dentist from Springwood as the Liberal frontrunner). Mays is the deputy Mayor fer chrissakes – it’s not like she’s invisible. The Lib will do well though, as huge chunks of the electorate are simply bogan mortgagees who are disengaged from politics, especially of the local variety (Winmalee, North Katoomba, Faulconbridge, Blaxland – all big booths).

    If Mays pulls preferences (and I think she will) and the Lib ends up on about 38-40 percent primary, Mays will win. If the Lib gets north of 43% primary she will win

    As an aside, the four leading candiates are all women, I know the CDP will probably spoil the party by selecting a man to challenge all the lady brains, but can anyone remember a lower house contest at a general election where ALL the candidates were women?

    Put Politics in The Pub Candidates Forum at the Katoomba Family Hotel in your diary – it will be a ripsnorter and worth the train ride up from Sydney! Google will have the date.

  12. Jeranglism..I agree with your chances on Mays. She does have the profile, she certainly has the charisma and from what I can see has a huge fan base in the community including tories who are fearful of the hard right, rusted on labor voters who are slowly rusting off and greens who wont back the current candidate. My money is on her!

  13. Greens choose to not direct preferences for the seat. Im a little puzzled. Doyle is running arguably as the most progressive Labor candidate for a Labor held seat. Add to that, Roza Sage quoted a climate skepticish comment in an environmental forum. When asked about the existence of climate change she quoted ”I do believe in climate changes- However im not all that convinced its anthropogenic”

    Anyway, I may have to adjust my odds. Labor are almost certainly going to lose the primary, and I just cant see how they can win the seat on the back of perferences following the decision by the Greens (also considering Mays is going put 1 only). I think Sage is going to pull off a Steven Bradbury. Despite the will-be Labor crucifixtion statewide, this should at least be a close seat with the left directing preferences away from the Sage. However with the Progressive candidates squablling over the majority Progressive vote, Sage romps home with the minority Tory vote. Heres hoping the Progressive voters in the B.M will be smarter then their Progressive candidates and will knock off Steven Bradbury.

  14. I can almost guarantee that Sage will win the seat with a MAJORITY of primary votes. Squabbles over preferences etc will just be academic, and will only be determinative of who finishes second. There is a real prospect that the ALP candidate comes 4th here – I am told that they are having trouble manning their booths here big time……

  18. This seat is featured in the latest National Interest. I always enjoy Peter Mares’ focus on seats, it’s a local long-form look that doesn’t happen often enough. Tally Room goes some way to rectify that, but in some future incarnation, could see citizen-conducted interviews with candidates as a feature.

  19. It depends where DB’s polling is from. The upper mountains (Katoomba and surrounds) will swing to the greens, but the rest will go firmly Liberal. I think Labor will come second, but only just.

  20. If polling was conducted randomly across the electorate it should be assessed on that basis – the issue will be the size of the sample and the MOE.

  22. Trish Doyle is part of the Labor Party which has clear defined goals. Though the Labor party needs improvement, Trish and Phil’s office (speicifcally Trish who has done the groundwork) have been very supportive in individual needs of Blue Mountains constituents for their health and wellbeing.

    This is why we have individual candidates. They have minds of their own, regardless of overall party policy and have the ability to voice that. You only really need to vote 1 for the small ballot and 1 for the large ballot (unless you’re keen enough on 311 to fill out).

    For this reason I wish the best for Trish today and continued support whichever way the cookie crumbles. Good luck to you.

    I note the following on the other candidates:

    – Independent Janet Mays is not so independent in that she works on council already and I do not feel that she really does reflect people’s desires up here. We are more than just Springwood. I find her applicancy not to be independent of public governance at a local level.
    – Liberalr Roza Sage has some reasonable ideas but they are quite airy fairy. Not as concrete as Trish.
    – Greens candidate Kerrin O’Grady seems to be looking at the luxuries. Whilst history and increasing tourism are nice, we still need the infrastructure and so on.
    – Merv Cos of the Christian Democratic Pary does not even have a profile in the link so who knows what he thinks though if he follows Fred Nile, I do not agree with they tying together of church and state and to become a very nanny state of NO’s.

    When we think of it, the state campaign has been one of reminding us not to give a “blank cheque” to Liberal. I agree with this statement and feel that Trish would do a very thorough job.

    Good luck with your decision making. I hope you find this informed.

    http://votensw.info/home = This link will help you find a local polling area from 8am – 6pm.

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