McMahon – Australia 2016

ALP 4.6%

Incumbent MP
Chris Bowen, since 2010. Previously Member for Prospect 2004-2010.

Geography
Western Sydney. McMahon covers a central part of Western Sydney, covering parts of a number of local government areas. It covers parts of Holroyd, Fairfield, Penrith, Blacktown, Bankstown and Parramatta councils. The seat covers the suburb of Fairfield itself as well as the suburbs of Smithfield, Wetherill Park, Greystanes, Pemulwuy, Erskine Park, Guildford, Carramar and St Clair, and parts of Merrylands.

Redistribution
McMahon lost Bossley Park, Abbotsbury and Greenfield Park to Fowler, and gained Guildford, Fairfield East and Carramar from Blaxland and parts of Merrylands from Parramatta. These changes cut the Labor margin from 5.3% to 4.6%.

History
McMahon was created at the 2010 election, but was effectively the renaming of the seat of Prospect, and covered most of the same territory.

The original seat of Prospect was first created for the 1969 election, and has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1969 by the ALP’s Dick Klugman. Klugman held the seat for 21 years, retiring in 1990.

He was succeeded by Janice Crosio, who had held a local state seat for the ALP since 1981, and had served as a minister for the last four years of the NSW state Labor government, from 1984 to 1988.

Crosio’s move to federal politics saw her serve as a Parliamentary Secretary from 1992 until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996. Crosio held the seat until the 2004 election.

At the 2004 election, the seat was won by former Mayor of Fairfield, Chris Bowen. Bowen quickly rose to the Labor frontbench and was appointed Assistant Treasurer in the first Rudd ministry after the 2007 election. He was promoted to Cabinet in 2009.

Bowen was quickly promoted through the ranks, serving in the portfolios of Immigration and Higher Education. He resigned from the ministry in March 2013 after his participation in a campaign to encourage Kevin Rudd to challenge for the Labor leadership. He returned to cabinet as Treasurer when Kevin Rudd returned to the leadership, and has served as Shadow Treasurer since the 2013 election.

Candidates

• Astrid O’Neill (Greens)
• Victor Waterson (Australia First)
• Chris Bowen (Labor)
• Fadhel Shamasha (Independent)
• Milan Maksimovic (Christian Democratic Party)
• George Bilic (Liberal)

Assessment
While Labor’s position in McMahon has weakened in recent elections, and they could be vulnerable to lose this seat if they perform poorly, it seems likely that Bowen will strengthen his hold in 2016.

2013 result

2013 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts. Polling places at the eastern end of the electorate have been split between north-east (those in Holroyd and Parramatta council areas) and south-east (those in Fairfield and Bankstown council areas).

The reminder have been grouped as “west”. Most of these booths are in the Penrith area, along with solitary booths in the Blacktown council area, across the border in the Liverpool council area, and a sole booth in the western end of the Fairfield council area.

Labor remarkably only won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in one of three areas, winning 66% in the south-east, while they narrowly lost in the other two areas. The Liberal Party won 50.3% in the north-east and 52.4% in the west.