LIB 3.9% vs NAT
Incumbent MP
Melissa Price, since 2013.
Geography
North of Western Australia. Durack covers a majority of Western Australia’s landmass, stretching from the northern Wheatbelt outside of Perth, covering the coast all the way to the Northern Territory border. Major towns include Geraldton, Broome and Port Hedland.
Redistribution
Durack slightly expanded on its southern boundary, taking in Bruce Rock, Narembeen, Quairading, Westonia and Yilgarn council areas.
History
Durack was created in 2010, out of northern parts of O’Connor and Kalgoorlie.
Kalgoorlie had previously swung between Labor and Liberal, and was held by the ALP’s Graeme Campbell from 1980.
Campbell was expelled from the ALP in 1995, and was re-elected in 1996.
Campbell lost to the Liberal Party’s Barry Haase in 1998.
Haase moved to Durack in 2010, and won a fifth term.
Haase retired in 2013, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Melissa Price.
Candidates
- Ian James (Greens)
- Carol Martin (Labor)
- Grahame Gould (Australian Christians)
- Mitchell Sambell (Rise Up Australia)
- Melissa Price (Liberal)
- Lisa Cole (Nationals)
Assessment
Durack is quite a marginal seat in a race between the Liberal Party and the Nationals, but everything would have to go the Nationals’ way for them to win. Firstly, the Nationals need to stay ahead of Labor, who they outpolled by barely 3% in 2013 at a low point for Labor. Secondly, they would need to benefit from Labor preferences, and a switch in Labor preferencing would destroy their chances.
Finally, if everything else works out, the Nationals would need a swing of about 4% against the Liberal Party. Considering that the Liberal MP now has a term as the incumbent MP, and the Nationals’ tardiness in announcing a candidate, it seems unlikely that the Liberal Party will lose Durack.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Melissa Price | Liberal | 28,143 | 38.0 | -7.1 | 37.8 |
| Shane Van Styn | Nationals | 17,145 | 23.2 | +5.5 | 23.2 |
| Daron Keogh | Labor | 15,018 | 20.3 | -3.8 | 19.9 |
| Ian James | Greens | 5,227 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 6.9 |
| Desmond John Headland | Palmer United Party | 4,998 | 6.8 | +6.8 | 6.8 |
| Grahame Gould | Australian Christians | 972 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.3 |
| Shane Foreman | Rise Up Australia | 810 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 1.3 |
| Aaron Todd | Katter’s Australian Party | 783 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 1.1 |
| Ian Rose | Family First | 763 | 1.0 | -1.4 | 1.0 |
| Judy F Sudholz | Citizens Electoral Council | 177 | 0.2 | +0.2 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 5,056 | 6.8 |
2013 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Melissa Price | Liberal | 39,965 | 54.0 | 53.9 | |
| Shane Van Styn | Nationals | 34,071 | 46.0 | 46.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas. Those in the Geraldton urban area have been grouped together. The rest of the electorate was split into five areas. From north to south, these are Kimberley, Pilbara, Gascoyne, Mid West and Wheatbelt.
The Liberal Party won the two-candidate-preferred against the Nationals in four areas, ranging from 50.8% in the mid-west to 57% in the Pilbara.
The Nationals won in the Wheatbelt and Gascoyne narrowly.
Labor came third, with a vote ranging from 10% in the Wheatbelt to 28% in the Kimberley.
| Voter group | ALP % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Geraldton | 18.8 | 55.3 | 14,865 | 19.5 |
| Pilbara | 25.9 | 56.7 | 10,651 | 13.9 |
| Wheatbelt | 10.1 | 49.2 | 10,337 | 13.5 |
| Kimberley | 28.3 | 52.0 | 6,542 | 8.6 |
| Mid West | 14.9 | 50.8 | 6,231 | 8.2 |
| Gascoyne | 20.4 | 49.7 | 3,114 | 4.1 |
| Other votes | 21.2 | 55.6 | 24,676 | 32.3 |
Labor have a strong candidate here in former Kimberley MP Carol Martin. Durack includes areas that have voted Labor at state level in the relatively recent past and has a high indigenous population. Perhaps many 2013 Nat voters might go back to Labor & conservative Nat voters go to Libs. So big swing to Labor but still a comfortable Lib victory.
shame – if Brendon Grylls stood he would win it for the Nats
Is there anyway of estimating what the TPP between Labor and Liberal would be in this seat?
15.2%
It is easier to represent this electorate based in Perth seeing as there are no scheduled flights between Geraldton, the largest city in the electorate and anywhere else other than Perth and the relatively small town of Carnarvon.
The seats were better aligned on a community of interest level when you had Kalgoorlie, which largely represented the mining communities of WA and O’Connor representing the wheat/sheep areas. This also confined the major travel difficulties to one seat (Kalgoorlie). At the 2008 WA redistribution it split agricultural and mining communities into half and half in both and made each seat very difficult to traverse for an MP. The redistribution was probably unavoidable though given that the old Kalgoorlie/O’Connor border would have had to run part way through Geraldton to fit within quota.
The Libs should easily hold but there should be some strong Labor gains in the non-Wheatbelt areas (Geraldton and further north).
Durack just got more interesting. Carol Martin has her own HTV cards favouring the Nats. With the possible exception of Warren Snowdon, any Labor MP who feels like stopping her is a three day drive away. Carn local democracy (and Lisa Cole, whoever she is).
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-14/labor-candidate-rejects-preference-deal-in-durack/7508754
On the 2013 numbers, the Nationals wouldn’t be at all certain of finishing in second place. Assuming a swing to Labor and an apparently decent ALP candidate, the Nats could fall behind them into third. O’Connor would probably have been a better seat to try this.
And I wonder which seat we will see the Liberal candidate “individually” preference the Greens or NXT as payback?
My prediction: Liberal hold, considering the late announcement of a National candidate, and expected primary vote swing back to Labor.
Prediction: Liberal hold, there was a rumour of former WA National leader Brendon Grylls running here, but that didn’t eventuate