There will be a by-election in a marginal LNP seat in Queensland in the next few months after Liberal National MP Jann Stuckey announced her resignation.
Stuckey has held Currumbin since 2004 and won in 2017 by a 3.3% margin. Stuckey announced last week she planned to resign.
The by-election date is yet to be set but it seems quite likely that it will be held on March 28, the same day as Queensland’s local government election.
Currumbin is the seventh-most marginal LNP seat in the state parliament and if Labor were to win it would increase their majority in the parliament in the lead up to the October state election.
Currumbin covers the southern end of the Gold Coast.
You can read my guide to this by-election here.
For us plebs you should be explicit about whether it’s a Federal or State seat.
It’s State?
Johnston by-election too??
The description at the start says its a state electorate in the 4th sentence.
Pauli’s Surely no one who is a regular on TALLYROOM will know that Currumbin is a State Peliamentary seat.
Whilst Ben’s guide does not explicitly state it is aState by-election there are half a dozen clues that indicate it is a state seat. Election Dates refs to state election and council elections.
Paulus
My apologies for miss-spelling your name. Spell check is a nuisance at times.
I did add an extra sentence making it explicit that Currumbin is a state seat. Happy to take on feedback about this kind of thing.
Happy new year to all colleagues, & particularly to other fellow obsessives !!!
this could be interesting. In the context of the QLD election even more so.
Of topic:: last night on PM Later Robert Borsak announced that the Shooters fishers farmers, would stand in 13 fed seats, at the next election in NSW. Is it an accident that this comes as Mick mac is reconfirmed as a lame duck disaster ?
Id speculate that the 13 comprise All Nat seats + Richmond, E–M, Gilmore ,Hunter, Farrer, Hume. Perhaps Patterson is a possibility. However Victoria perhaps offers some fertile ground/possibility ? Certainly SA although perhaps this is too far afield ?. Regardless this is a direct & powerful challenge ( mortal threat !!) to the Nats, with the possibility of some interesting collateral damage too.
I’m going for Labor but I think the LNP will hold here. Incoming Governments usually struggle in bye-elections when voters are given a chance for a protest vote. Its still possible a Labor victory here as its only a 3% margin and Deb Frecklington is untried with voters. The LNP’s canidate has also
come under scrutiny for her driving record and accused of being a blow-in.
But history would suggest otherwise with the Beattie government losing the Gavin bye-election but regaining the seat at the 2006 state election. If Labor’s loses I don’t think it will be a result like the Newman government experienced with Redcliffe and Stafford where there was white hot anger. Voters may not be thrilled with Labor but their not enamoured with the LNP either.
There could be ramifications for Deb Frecklington leadership if the LNP fall short here though.
PN
Agree with most of that. Do you think the govt might get a kicking just for the hell of it, or perceived anti QLD/ Coal positioning from the ALP ?
In case of Currumbin I would not expect a large anti coal bot but neither would I expect the opposite. Traffic Congestion on M1 will be a much bigger issue.
Deb Frecklington is not cutting through to either city or country votes.
She must be terrified about her role during Newman government becoming an election issue.
AJ
Which role re Frecklington ? How does it stack up against say a perception of comrade Trad as a kind of (QLD er ) 5th columnist !!?. Or a kind of virtual tribal traitor !?. By that i mean that she seems to have more in common with Bandt, or Albo’s constituents than any QLDers !!
Also arn’t WE (OTHER Australians ) paying for you guys, to duplicate an already 6 lane freeway?(M1 ?) Perhaps you need a trip down south , to experience some REAL congestion? With the added bonus of being tolled for the pleasure.
Andrew Jackson you are right Deb Frecklington is not cutting through. I’m not sure its so much her role on the Newman government thats a problem but an interview in the Couier Mail where she took a swipe at Annastasia Palaszczuk appearance for the clothes she wears and said she had better leadership qualites because she has children. Palaszczuk was unable to have children. In what was meant to be a profile piece she had made it an own goal. Most commentators thought the comments were overreach and brought into question her judgement.
I’ve read some in the LNP want her gone but the other alternatives don’t have the numbers. A by-election loss could change that.
Your correct mining is more an issue in North and Central Queensland. It won’t play a role in the bye-election. Actually there is a sizable Greens vote in this seat where the environment and over devlopment are seen as important issues for voters.
The problem for Labor is right now both parties are neck and neck in statewide polling and there is strong distrust for the major parties. And there is a sizable chunk of the vote to the minor parties. Those factors don’t make it easy to take a seat off the otherside. Labor only gained one seat outside of Brisbane at the last state election which was Gavin. They did get a considerable swing to them in Currumbin though which gives them some chance.
My prediction before election Frecklington and Trad will be demoted by their parties. Both are liabilities which may be the difference between ALP or LNP government. If only one of these women go then her party will be government in November.
An article in the Courier Mail has reported the LNP are worried that local branch members are not supporting the campaign because the candidate was parachuted by executive. They have resorted to offering free beer for volunteers and transporting volunteers from Brisbane. If they have angst about this it makes me think the LNP are not confident of holding the seat. Interesting times ahead….
AJ Don’t want to talk M1 anymore !!??. Very fair-minded of you to throw DF, & JT together & brand them equally toxic. However perhaps their poisonous attributes, & indeed lethality are not so well balanced !!??. However you may well end up being right !!! who might realistically replace DF ?
PN You are exactly right about the DF swipe on fertility. Imagine if a bloke said such a thing ? Bill Heffernan leaps to mind. The folly of it. To make such a primitive mistake doesn’t just show a lack of judgement, it demonstrates a lack of intelligence, insight, preparation, acumen & much more. What worse is the unwillingness to embrace the error, & learn from it.
TOO GOOD NOT TO SHARE from todays “Strewth” in the OZ
The Unhinged Bob Katter Award this week goes to Bob Katter for another press-conference explosion. After calling an AAP journalist a “city lily-pad leftie”, he told the hardworking Greg Brown: “I’m not listening to you, I’m not listening to you. Because we’ve listened to the likes of you and that’s because. No! No! You are asking a most pejorative question! And it is absolutely represents the problems that we’ve got. I’m not answering it. Don’t open your mouth again because I get very angry and I’m angry enough now.” Chill pill alert.
But Strewth’s best on ground in parliament this week goes to West Australian Labor MP Matt Keogh for a sports-rort zinger: “This government says that if you have a go you get a go, but it seems for the city of Gosnells, in the electorate of Burt, if you have a go, you get a kick in the nuts.”
Enjoy WD
pick a minor swing to ALP……….. not enough to win. Stuckey had a personal vote I suspect of 5% or more
Wine Diamond by now you should have worked out that at least on tallyroom I try to be an observer rather than a participant.
You are correct that I may be right and since I wrote the piece two days ago I am even more convinced of my accuracy. Today’s Courier Mail has the results of a survey on how satisfied we are with government programmes. In reality we are not unduly unsatisfied or for that matter satisfied. The same paper has an editorial that is very anti Trad but not pro Frecklington. I can not think of anyone in LNP who is ready to take over as Premier and I expect ALP to win in October. ALP has to address the problem of paying for its expenditure and LNP the problem of basing services on current taxation. Most of us want a level of government service which we do not want to pay for. Both LNP and ALP have sold off anything that is not bolted down and I can see both parties moving to their extrmities to pay satisfy their supporters whilst at the same time upsetting great majority of population.
We can not have better schools better hospitals more cops and prisons, expansion of infrastructure such as dams and HELE power stations whilst having lower taxes and charges.
Driving to Bribie this morning a bit of evidence of campaigning for Councils but far more evidence of LNP Federal member campaigning.
AJ
an interesting reply as always. You’ll forgive me if i attempt to inspire you to greater “participation” or engagement !!
You could well be correct about the LNP being unready for govt. However there is the “devil’s alternative” of Labor being proven to be unfit for govt. WHAT A WONDERFUL CHOICE !!!. Oh, to be a queenslander ……!!. Though Speaking as an Australian (patriot), i’m happier with an incompetent Labor state government, than an LNP one.
I disagree with you completely on this score
“ALP has to address the problem of paying for its expenditure ” No they don’t. Not at all. They can simply continue to build the state deficit. Why the hell not ?? Victoria will spend 60 + $billion in deficit as POLICY right now. the NT HAS $36 billion+ ..Labor govt’s seem to regard deficit spending as “best practice”!!!!. My point being that Why the hell should we, (people/voters over 60) bloody well care ??. Its simply NOT our problem !!.
I also disagree about sell offs. NSW doesn’t have deficit because we have sold off (a lot of) the things that QLD has refused to, for better or worse. NSW has been massively incentivised (overcompensated !!??) by the commonwealth for so called “asset re-cycling”. QLD could play the same game & have it’s own infrastructure boom. I’d agree with you that this is a far from binary argument. AT this point perhaps NSW has gained funding that would have gone to other states?
cheers WD
Mick greetings.
ABC website has four candidates that have nominated for the Currumbin by-election from Labor, LNP, Greens, and One Nation and nominations closed on 13th of February. It has been noted that Labor selected their candidate early in October may not have been a coincidence as it was reported it was deliberately completed early on a rumor going around that Jann Stuckey was not going to go full term. Minor parties vote probably will get a spike in the by-election- however One Nation didn’t stand a candidate in Currumbin at the last state election in 2017. This likely will indicate their percentage of the vote will be quite modest compared to other parts around the state.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/currumbin-by-election-2020/
WD
It is not only ALP that thinks/ thought deficit budgeting was is/ was best practice. Menzies never had a budget that was not a deficit budget.
There is substantial difference to deficit budgeting to build Snowy, Ord, or Fairbairn dams or beef roads than to have deficit budgeting to pay for Safe-Schools and pot hole filling.
Is it just me or am I the only one that gets tired of the bias of The Courier Mail? I am sure if they had had their way Campbell Newman would still be Premier. I have my own bias of course but I prefer the media I read and watch to not be so obviously bias to one or the other side. Let us the media consumer decide for ourselves who to vote for. I suspect Deb Frecklington is on the ropes and the member for Broadwater, whose name escapes me at the moment, is just waiting in the wings to take over. Either way whoever wins the next QLD election is there for a four year term – as opposed to the pre-existing three year terms we have had for decades. At this point in the electoral circle I bet the LNP will do anything not to face another four years in the wilderness. And I cannot blame them. There, I guess I have shown my own bias.
Andrewy
Thanks for your thoughts. Clearly public debt is not a binary question (i did say this previously) So i agree with you completely. However borrowing to fund recurrent spending is just govt self indulgence. Money won’t be free forever!!.
Right now it would be appropriate to borrow Trillions to invest in productive infrastructure. However that is not what i was originally talking about.
Mark
Bias in the media is endemic. However, telling Australians what to think say or do, is a profoundly stupid thing to engage in !!. Bob Brown’s “convoy” last year being the best, latest example of such folly !!. If the CM is engaging in such nonsense, i would suggest you ought to be delighted !!. Surely a larger problem would be the presentation of opinion, as fact ?
Jo-Ann Miller resigns from parliament, forcing Bundamba by-election:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-20/jo-ann-miller-labor-queensland-mp-resigns-from-parliament/11982940
A couple of tibits going around the Labor canidate has accused the LNP volunteers of ripping down her signs and corflutes. Very disappointing if true.
Jann Stuckey has taken to social media complaing Labor have used her quotes calling the LNP canidate a ‘blow in’ in a leaflet that have been mailed out to residents. Yeah well if Stuckey didn’t want them used she should have never aired them in the media. She lobbed a softball to Labor that they have hit of the park.
Reports are the LNP are watching this by-election closely. If the LNP fall short then David Crisafulli may pounce for the leadership. The article added LNP expects to hold but it will be a tussle with the margin being tight.
LNP signs keep getting ripped down & LNP trailers have been tipped over or, defeats the purpose but, had tyres taken off. Labor plays dirty.
Jann Stuckey has announced her resignation from the LNP and says she doesn’t support the LNP’s Currumbin candidate 10 days out from the by-election. It can’t be helpful to the LNP this has come out. The bright side for the LNP is that with other news in the headlines this may get lost in the media cycle and not impact as greatly on voters.
It will be interesting with the national and international problems at the moment if they have any impact on the voting trends in the by-elections.
PN
Loyalty in politics is such a beautiful thing !!? No?. Thats another couple of percent !. I wonder if the LNP re running short ?
A Poll in the Courier Mail has this seat as lineball.
“In Currumbin, the LNP’s vote has fallen almost 10 per cent since the 2017 State election to 38.7 per cent while the Labor vote has dropped by five per cent to 30.6 per cent.
One in ten voters were undecided with 42 per cent leaning towards the Greens, 36.1 per cent leaning towards the LNP and 19.7 per cent leaning towards Labor.
On a two-party preferred basis, Labor and the LNP were locked at 50 per cent each, a swing against the Deb Frecklington-led Opposition of 3.3 per cent.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/palaszczuk-government-on-brink-of-winning-currumbin-byelection/news-story/753bdac5dee808e153f4af8c829d0852
There is absolutely no doubt that Frecklington is not cutting through. Very few Queenslanders like Palaszczuk but majority think she is better than Frecklington.
In effect I think LNP will hold the BCC election Mayor and Councillors but same voters will vote ALP in State election. Crisis like we have are highly advantageous to sitting governments. The premier and Lord Mayor appear to be responsible and any criticism of them appears to be irresponsible even if that criticism is constructive.
I’m not writing this seat off for Labor but it’s going to be hard for them where they are at to peg it back. And Labor is behind 51.2% – 48.8% which is where they can’t be when it goes into counting postals. And the Courier Mail jumped the gun suggesting Labor was in box seat because the votes that were first counted were votes that were done on polling day that were likely going to favor Labor, but the pre-polls will favor the LNP and when they count the postals they will favor the LNP even more. While it’s true that some postals won’t be from seniors who will likely vote LNP, but are from people worried about the coronavirus epidemic- I still think the LNP are in the box seat to hold the seat.
There is a positive for Labor if they lose Currumbin as it will likely shore up Deb Frecklington leadership. There are some on the Labor side that would prefer to face Frecklington rather then the leadership aspirant David Crisafulli. There are likely some on the LNP that would prefer Crisafulli to be leader as well. But if the LNP hold Currumbin then question how they would fare with Crisafulli as leader at the next election will never be answered.
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