NZ redistribution – full analysis of draft boundaries

By
Ben Raue
-
4

Last Thursday, the first round of draft boundaries for the next New Zealand election was released to the public.

After extensive work, I have now produced a Google Earth map of the boundaries, as well as estimates of the vote for each party in the party vote and candidate vote in each of the electorates.

In short, no changes were made to the seven Maori electorates (which will not feature much in this analysis), as well as to twenty of the 63 general electorates.

The other 43 general electorates have been redrawn into 44 new electorates. One electorate (Waitakere, on the western fringe of Auckland) has been abolished, with two new  electorates (Upper Harbour and Kelston) created in western Auckland. Western and northern Auckland has seen the greatest changes, with the rest of the country seeing relatively minor changes.

In terms of the impact on parties, the Nationals have lost Waitakere and gained Upper Harbour, for no net change, and Labour has gained the seat of Kelston, resulting in Labour having one more seat than on current boundaries.

In Christchurch, the seat of Christchurch Central has switched from National to Labour, and the seat of Port Hills has switched from Labour to National, for no net change.

You can download the Google Earth map here. You can also download the map, along with the 2008-2011 parliamentary map and maps of local council areas and regions, at the Maps page.

Click through below for a Fusion Table with all of the results, more maps and more data.

You can download a spreadsheet which includes the vote for each party in each electorate before and after the redistribution, a table that shows the margins (both party vote and candidate vote) before and after, as well as a pendulum sorting electorates by their margin in the candidate vote after the redistribution, and a table of the shifts in population.

Download the spreadsheet here.

This Fusion Table shows the candidate vote for each party in each electorate. You can also click here to view the Fusion Table showing the party vote.

Electorates list

Electorate Old candidate vote New candidate vote Old party vote New party vote
Auckland Central NAT 2.16% vs LAB NAT 7.20% vs LAB NAT 17.12% vs LAB NAT 20.41% vs LAB
Bay of Plenty NAT 50.55% vs LAB NAT 50.73% vs LAB NAT 43.92% vs LAB NAT 44.11% vs LAB
Botany NAT 38.68% vs LAB NAT 37.80% vs LAB NAT 36.64% vs LAB NAT 35.82% vs LAB
Christchurch Central NAT 0.17% vs LAB LAB 4.07% vs NAT NAT 15.22% vs LAB NAT 14.20% vs LAB
Christchurch East LAB 19.04% vs NAT LAB 16.20% vs NAT NAT 14.44% vs LAB NAT 14.04% vs LAB
Clutha-Southland NAT 52.06% vs LAB NAT 52.06% vs LAB NAT 46.68% vs LAB NAT 46.68% vs LAB
Coromandel NAT 37.76% vs LAB NAT 37.86% vs LAB NAT 34.09% vs LAB NAT 34.32% vs LAB
Dunedin North LAB 11.90% vs NAT LAB 9.12% vs NAT LAB 1.40% vs NAT NAT 0.59% vs LAB
Dunedin South LAB 12.12% vs NAT LAB 12.12% vs NAT NAT 5.21% vs LAB NAT 5.21% vs LAB
East Coast NAT 16.46% vs LAB NAT 16.65% vs LAB NAT 25.90% vs LAB NAT 25.15% vs LAB
East Coast Bays NAT 45.10% vs LAB NAT 52.42% vs LAB NAT 45.65% vs LAB NAT 51.64% vs LAB
Epsom ACT 6.30% vs NAT ACT 6.46% vs NAT NAT 48.98% vs LAB NAT 48.72% vs LAB
Hamilton East NAT 25.54% vs LAB NAT 24.26% vs LAB NAT 26.67% vs LAB NAT 25.48% vs LAB
Hamilton West NAT 14.19% vs LAB NAT 14.34% vs LAB NAT 18.59% vs LAB NAT 18.87% vs LAB
Hauraki-Waikato LAB 35.53% vs MANA LAB 35.53% vs MANA LAB 33.05% vs MAORI LAB 33.05% vs MAORI
Helensville NAT 60.24% vs LAB NAT 44.98% vs LAB NAT 51.44% vs LAB NAT 45.11% vs LAB
Hunua NAT 48.83% vs LAB NAT 50.86% vs LAB NAT 46.47% vs LAB NAT 48.17% vs LAB
Hutt South LAB 15.05% vs NAT LAB 14.94% vs NAT NAT 5.34% vs LAB NAT 7.39% vs LAB
Ikaroa-Rawhiti LAB 37.61% vs MAORI LAB 37.61% vs MAORI LAB 34.60% vs MAORI LAB 34.60% vs MAORI
Ilam NAT 40.07% vs LAB NAT 40.07% vs LAB NAT 39.16% vs LAB NAT 39.16% vs LAB
Invercargill NAT 19.79% vs LAB NAT 19.79% vs LAB NAT 21.15% vs LAB NAT 21.15% vs LAB
Kaikōura NAT 34.54% vs LAB NAT 34.54% vs LAB NAT 35.55% vs LAB NAT 35.55% vs LAB
Kelston LAB 30.47% vs NAT LAB 17.14% vs NAT
Mana LAB 6.64% vs NAT LAB 6.64% vs NAT NAT 2.19% vs LAB NAT 2.19% vs LAB
Māngere LAB 63.30% vs NAT LAB 63.30% vs NAT LAB 57.46% vs NAT LAB 57.46% vs NAT
Manukau East LAB 62.96% vs NAT LAB 63.03% vs NAT LAB 47.07% vs NAT LAB 46.86% vs NAT
Manurewa LAB 36.41% vs NAT LAB 36.41% vs NAT LAB 31.30% vs NAT LAB 31.30% vs NAT
Maungakiekie NAT 9.31% vs LAB NAT 4.88% vs LAB NAT 6.74% vs LAB NAT 2.75% vs LAB
Mt Albert LAB 31.69% vs NAT LAB 24.78% vs NAT LAB 0.41% vs NAT NAT 5.67% vs LAB
Mt Roskill LAB 23.21% vs NAT LAB 7.56% vs NAT LAB 4.07% vs NAT NAT 8.13% vs LAB
Napier NAT 11.12% vs LAB NAT 11.81% vs LAB NAT 19.52% vs LAB NAT 20.23% vs LAB
Nelson NAT 20.51% vs LAB NAT 20.51% vs LAB NAT 18.08% vs LAB NAT 18.08% vs LAB
New Lynn LAB 15.92% vs NAT LAB 14.18% vs NAT NAT 2.22% vs LAB NAT 4.10% vs LAB
New Plymouth NAT 12.90% vs LAB NAT 14.44% vs LAB NAT 27.44% vs LAB NAT 28.15% vs LAB
North Shore NAT 41.87% vs LAB NAT 41.87% vs LAB NAT 45.93% vs LAB NAT 45.93% vs LAB
Northcote NAT 29.00% vs LAB NAT 29.00% vs LAB NAT 27.24% vs LAB NAT 27.24% vs LAB
Northland NAT 35.95% vs LAB NAT 35.95% vs LAB NAT 32.55% vs LAB NAT 32.55% vs LAB
Ōhariu UNF 3.74% vs LAB UNF 0.29% vs LAB NAT 23.07% vs LAB NAT 21.89% vs LAB
Ōtaki NAT 14.09% vs LAB NAT 14.02% vs LAB NAT 17.20% vs LAB NAT 17.44% vs LAB
Pakuranga NAT 44.06% vs LAB NAT 44.06% vs LAB NAT 44.19% vs LAB NAT 44.19% vs LAB
Palmerston North LAB 10.20% vs NAT LAB 10.20% vs NAT NAT 10.24% vs LAB NAT 10.24% vs LAB
Papakura NAT 32.57% vs LAB NAT 31.59% vs LAB NAT 25.42% vs LAB NAT 24.55% vs LAB
Port Hills LAB 9.53% vs NAT NAT 8.01% vs LAB NAT 16.02% vs LAB NAT 25.62% vs LAB
Rangitata NAT 18.62% vs LAB NAT 17.88% vs LAB NAT 26.70% vs LAB NAT 26.29% vs LAB
Rangitīkei NAT 30.21% vs LAB NAT 29.55% vs LAB NAT 32.75% vs LAB NAT 31.79% vs LAB
Rimutaka LAB 9.87% vs NAT LAB 9.74% vs NAT NAT 11.62% vs LAB NAT 12.93% vs LAB
Rodney NAT 32.31% vs CON NAT 31.01% vs CON NAT 48.72% vs LAB NAT 47.08% vs LAB
Rongotai LAB 25.14% vs NAT LAB 25.14% vs NAT LAB 1.19% vs NAT LAB 1.19% vs NAT
Rotorua NAT 24.04% vs LAB NAT 29.43% vs LAB NAT 29.32% vs LAB NAT 32.71% vs LAB
Selwyn NAT 53.88% vs LAB NAT 49.46% vs LAB NAT 46.52% vs LAB NAT 43.69% vs LAB
Tāmaki NAT 48.46% vs LAB NAT 48.90% vs LAB NAT 46.84% vs LAB NAT 47.30% vs LAB
Tamaki Makaurau MAORI 5.31% vs LAB MAORI 5.31% vs LAB LAB 27.05% vs MAORI LAB 27.05% vs MAORI
Taranaki-King Country NAT 50.42% vs LAB NAT 50.56% vs LAB NAT 44.49% vs LAB NAT 44.98% vs LAB
Taupō NAT 42.92% vs LAB NAT 42.92% vs LAB NAT 36.03% vs LAB NAT 36.03% vs LAB
Tauranga NAT 48.24% vs LAB NAT 47.63% vs LAB NAT 39.22% vs LAB NAT 38.69% vs LAB
Te Atatū LAB 18.38% vs NAT LAB 12.48% vs NAT NAT 2.28% vs LAB NAT 0.63% vs LAB
Te Tai Hauauru MAORI 18.45% vs LAB MAORI 18.45% vs LAB LAB 20.98% vs MAORI LAB 20.98% vs MAORI
Te Tai Tokerau MANA 6.21% vs LAB MANA 6.21% vs LAB LAB 10.17% vs MANA LAB 10.17% vs MANA
Te Tai Tonga LAB 8.83% vs MAORI LAB 8.83% vs MAORI LAB 22.70% vs GRN LAB 22.70% vs GRN
Tukituki NAT 29.12% vs LAB NAT 29.12% vs LAB NAT 28.46% vs LAB NAT 28.46% vs LAB
Upper Harbour NAT 30.07% vs LAB NAT 30.75% vs LAB
Waiariki MAORI 10.59% vs MANA MAORI 10.59% vs MANA LAB 13.84% vs MAORI LAB 13.84% vs MAORI
Waikato NAT 46.50% vs LAB NAT 47.12% vs LAB NAT 43.54% vs LAB NAT 43.92% vs LAB
Waimakariri NAT 1.81% vs LAB NAT 3.02% vs LAB NAT 33.48% vs LAB NAT 35.01% vs LAB
Wairarapa NAT 21.01% vs LAB NAT 21.01% vs LAB NAT 28.23% vs LAB NAT 28.23% vs LAB
Waitakere NAT 0.03% vs LAB 0 NAT 3.07% vs LAB 0.00
Waitaki NAT 37.43% vs LAB NAT 37.33% vs LAB NAT 33.87% vs LAB NAT 33.79% vs LAB
Wellington Central LAB 16.64% vs NAT LAB 17.40% vs NAT NAT 10.73% vs GRN NAT 10.14% vs GRN
West Coast-Tasman LAB 7.66% vs NAT LAB 7.66% vs NAT NAT 18.55% vs LAB NAT 18.55 % vs LAB
Whanganui NAT 16.18% vs LAB NAT 16.93% vs LAB NAT 20.15% vs LAB NAT 20.53 % vs LAB
Whangarei NAT 36.74% vs LAB NAT 36.74% vs LAB NAT 30.33% vs LAB NAT 30.33 % vs LAB
Wigram LAB 4.81% vs NAT LAB 3.18% vs NAT NAT 13.93% vs LAB NAT 15.73 % vs LAB
Electoral boundaries in Auckland for 2008 and 2011 elections.
Electoral boundaries in Auckland for 2008 and 2011 elections.
Proposed electoral boundaries in Auckland for the 2014 election.
Proposed electoral boundaries in Auckland for the 2014 election.
Electoral boundaries in Christchurch for 2008 and 2011 elections.
Electoral boundaries in Christchurch for 2008 and 2011 elections.

 

Proposed electoral boundaries in Christchurch for the 2014 election.
Proposed electoral boundaries in Christchurch for the 2014 election.
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4 COMMENTS

  3. Amazing work. I probably would’ve attempted to have calculated the effects of the boundary changes myself at some stage, so this saved me an awful lot of time.

    My picks for seats that will change hands: Tamaki Makaurau, Maungakiekie, Napier, Ohariu Waimakariri and Christchurch Central to Labour, and Epsom to National.

    Auckland Central to go down to the wire.

Comments are closed.