Seat in Focus: Capricornia

By
Ben Raue
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2

Behind yesterday’s profile seat of Barton, Capricornia is the second-closest seat in the country, with the ALP’s Peter Freeleagus currently leading by 156 votes.

Capricornia is Labor’s only Queensland seat outside of Brisbane, and was expected to fall with the loss of Kirsten Livermore’s personal vote. Currently the swing has been limited to 3.57%, but the addition of postal, prepoll and absentee votes is likely to favour the LNP.

For my analysis I have broken up the electorate into the same four areas as I did prior to the election.

Click here to read my pre-election profile of Capricornia.

Voter Group PUP % KAP % ALP 2PP % LNP swing Total votes % of ordinary votes
Rockhampton City 6.60 3.57 54.53 2.21 25,277 48.35
North 10.70 6.87 46.87 5.03 12,639 24.18
Rockhampton Rural 7.72 3.86 46.03 1.93 9,616 18.39
Isaacs 9.86 10.95 50.51 11.75 4,748 9.08
Other votes 7.35 5.76 48.37 19,218

The LNP won a majority vote in the north of the electorate with a solid 5% swing. In the rural parts of Rockhampton LGA, which was the only area the LNP won in 2010, the party won its smallest swing of less than 2%, and three booths saw small swings to Labor.

The least populous part of the electorate, Isaacs, was previously the most pro-Labor area, and is still narrowly pro-Labor but experienced a huge 11.8% swing to the LNP.

Almost half of ordinary votes were cast in Rockhampton’s urban area. A small LNP swing of 2.2% saw the ALP still win 54.5% of the vote, which made Rockhampton the strongest part of the seat for Labor.

Below the fold are two-party-preferred percentage maps and swing maps for Capricornia.

Two-party-preferred votes in Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Rockhampton urban area at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Rockhampton urban area at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in the Rockhampton urban area at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in the Rockhampton urban area at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the northern part of Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the northern part of Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in the northern part of Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in the northern part of Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southeastern parts of Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southeastern parts of Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in southeastern parts of Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in southeastern parts of Capricornia at the 2013 federal election.
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2 COMMENTS

  1. Interesting that the second and third largest swings to the LNP can be seen in the Moranbah booths (13% and 11%) when the ALP candidate was one of the Moranbah-based Isaac Regional Council members.

    I wonder how bad the swing may have been had he not been the candidate!

  2. It might have been better. Is he locally unpopular in Moranbah?

    The swing against Labor seems to be correlated with the KAP vote, but not with PUP. Looks like Palmer’s mob attracted plenty of Labor voters who still put their old party second, and not so much for KAP.

Comments are closed.